{ "ticker": { "uuid": "659eccd6-8774-406d-8bdb-ba57755a69e1", "symbol": "00688L", "name": "Cathay US Treasury 20+ YR Lev 2X ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.646, "architecture_energy": 86.039, "architecture_maturity": 44.379, "architecture_confidence": 80.711, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.55, "rotation_up": 8.37, "upward_expansion": 19.42, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 84.74, "downward_expansion": 97.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.541333, 6.701091, 6.792381, 6.879247 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 6.44, "trend_reference": 6.998, "distance_from_trend": -0.079737, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.940897, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.189009, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.208832, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.092958, "excess_performance": -0.47227, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079737, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027876, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.189009, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023517, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.352088, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018615, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.092958, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.217039, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24635688, "relative_activity": 0.935337, "balance": 0.217039, "dry_up": 0.870414, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03022, "annualized_volatility": 0.143577, "from_high_reference": -0.187894, "from_low_reference": 0.00468 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.998, "fair_value_reference": 7.940897, "structural_low": 6.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.017167, "positive_rate": 0.405405, "directional_follow_through": 0.594595, "median_excess_return": -0.024354, "regime_survival": 0.837838, "best_return": 0.202166, "worst_return": -0.152017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.014851, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.099547, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.20218, "worst_return": -0.338794, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.143564, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.17503, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.046243, "worst_return": -0.356661, "sufficient": true }, { 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044386, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.04698, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047076, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.072306, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053232, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", 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6.970714, 7.031183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.75, "volume": 12559050, "typical_volume": 35888764.75, "trend": 7.088, "fair_value": 8.044936, "relative_strength": -36.919878, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.007693, "energy": 24.270751, "activity_lines": [ 6.949333, 6.929091, 6.942762, 7.007957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.72, "volume": 15086100, "typical_volume": 32990699.75, "trend": 7.069333, "fair_value": 8.020577, "relative_strength": -32.431198, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.657313, "energy": 36.947528, "activity_lines": [ 6.860667, 6.896909, 6.914952, 6.984215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.55, "volume": 15460000, "typical_volume": 29113809.15, "trend": 7.046333, "fair_value": 7.993333, "relative_strength": -34.877187, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.216469, "energy": 75.444014, "activity_lines": [ 6.730667, 6.837455, 6.87481, 6.95071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.52, "volume": 36521000, "typical_volume": 27131400.15, "trend": 7.021333, "fair_value": 7.965897, "relative_strength": -33.57917, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.086804, "energy": 81.446449, "activity_lines": [ 6.626667, 6.775273, 6.835905, 6.916753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.44, "volume": 24635688, "typical_volume": 26338829.55, "trend": 6.998, "fair_value": 7.940897, "relative_strength": -35.208832, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.64569, "energy": 86.038885, "activity_lines": [ 6.541333, 6.701091, 6.792381, 6.879247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }