{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65ab7fd9-b151-407e-9ac2-140443215514", "symbol": "603017", "name": "ARTS Group Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.712, "architecture_energy": 84.147, "architecture_maturity": 24.229, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.97, "rotation_up": 14.5, "upward_expansion": 21.5, "deceleration": 37.21, "rotation_down": 69.65, "downward_expansion": 94.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.047333, 9.473143, 10.887107, 11.61281 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.47, "trend_reference": 12.26468, "distance_from_trend": -0.227864, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.74099, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.02782, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.828409, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.202862, "excess_performance": -0.159658, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.227864, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013294, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.02782, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.727288, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.158284, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.530831, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.202862, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.136992, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22928642, "relative_activity": 0.308012, "balance": 0.136992, "dry_up": 0.412042, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119036, "annualized_volatility": 0.518663, "from_high_reference": -0.472423, "from_low_reference": 0.203304 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.26468, "fair_value_reference": 9.74099, "structural_low": 7.87, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.095865, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.061924, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.425532, "worst_return": -0.328446, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.113863, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.050692, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.174651, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.057959, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.023229, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.229314, "worst_return": -0.095341, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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12.001476, 12.854452, 12.839567 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 10.3, "volume": 8974182, "typical_volume": 85768915.4, "trend": 12.542013, "fair_value": 9.784726, "relative_strength": -11.713865, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.000781, "energy": 67.07593, "activity_lines": [ 10.554192, 11.506136, 12.586164, 12.693868 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.87, "volume": 48345086, "typical_volume": 85527114.7, "trend": 12.498013, "fair_value": 9.784073, "relative_strength": -14.294534, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.14843, "energy": 67.140612, "activity_lines": [ 10.25, 11.01907, 12.286639, 12.52148 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.68, "volume": 45608400, "typical_volume": 84297871.0, "trend": 12.427346, "fair_value": 9.773981, "relative_strength": -19.784714, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.311742, "energy": 82.722357, "activity_lines": [ 9.660667, 10.412426, 11.886208, 12.275156 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.39, "volume": 30238200, "typical_volume": 82424385.85, "trend": 12.37068, "fair_value": 9.761849, "relative_strength": -23.267462, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.671181, "energy": 88.381732, "activity_lines": [ 9.134, 9.894616, 11.480063, 12.014682 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.99, "volume": 23915620, "typical_volume": 78744256.8, "trend": 12.318346, "fair_value": 9.748613, "relative_strength": -18.017823, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.05269, "energy": 84.831291, "activity_lines": [ 8.972667, 9.598111, 11.150871, 11.796574 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.47, "volume": 22928642, "typical_volume": 74440833.9, "trend": 12.26468, "fair_value": 9.74099, "relative_strength": -15.828409, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.711647, "energy": 84.146693, "activity_lines": [ 9.047333, 9.473143, 10.887107, 11.61281 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }