{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65abd3f8-7720-4985-8a23-ebbbb6648bc5", "symbol": "300960", "name": "Shenzhen Tongye Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.726, "architecture_energy": 64.964, "architecture_maturity": 88.87, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 27.87, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 59.31, "rotation_down": 56.14, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.088, 15.407091, 17.173952, 18.971849 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.75, "trend_reference": 21.303667, "distance_from_trend": -0.260691, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.223923, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.135751, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.879067, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.37, "excess_performance": -0.3774, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.260691, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129894, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.135751, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.34538, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.368791, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057241, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.37, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.307166, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8190862, "relative_activity": 1.034126, "balance": 0.307166, "dry_up": 1.063435, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091429, "annualized_volatility": 0.346317, "from_high_reference": -0.616135, "from_low_reference": 0.16408 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.303667, "fair_value_reference": 18.223923, "structural_low": 13.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.036221, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.029, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.455334, "worst_return": -0.165059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.006156, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.013179, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.209341, "worst_return": -0.290591, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.143665, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.103472, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.301044, "worst_return": -0.013714, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.32, "volume": 7998979, "typical_volume": 7822790.85, "trend": 22.666667, "fair_value": 18.208143, "relative_strength": -44.769153, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.733542, "energy": 91.018382, "activity_lines": [ 15.918666, 17.006545, 19.183095, 20.839914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.69, "volume": 8673679, "typical_volume": 7907754.95, "trend": 22.343333, "fair_value": 18.212611, "relative_strength": -41.017814, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.561202, "energy": 90.733643, "activity_lines": [ 15.411333, 16.381454, 18.570428, 20.32529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.05, "volume": 9229779, "typical_volume": 7844507.1, "trend": 21.997, "fair_value": 18.207765, "relative_strength": -43.144095, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.543583, "energy": 86.289681, "activity_lines": [ 14.864667, 15.767091, 17.960571, 19.790237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.18, "volume": 7597713, "typical_volume": 7796026.75, "trend": 21.618, "fair_value": 18.210679, "relative_strength": -36.815829, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.861508, "energy": 67.212668, "activity_lines": [ 14.868, 15.486, 17.516619, 19.35043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.75, "volume": 8190862, "typical_volume": 7920565.85, "trend": 21.303667, "fair_value": 18.223923, "relative_strength": -36.879067, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.725511, "energy": 64.964263, "activity_lines": [ 15.088, 15.407091, 17.173952, 18.971849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }