{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65abe0e1-cfa0-4ceb-b4f7-429fa3022821", "symbol": "NEMAKA", "name": "Nemak, S. A. B. de C. V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.139, "architecture_energy": 83.05, "architecture_maturity": 20.744, "architecture_confidence": 78.481, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.93, "rotation_up": 8.65, "upward_expansion": 18.36, "deceleration": 37.17, "rotation_down": 83.59, "downward_expansion": 96.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.902, 3.043273, 3.198143, 3.256516 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 2.79, "trend_reference": 3.318667, "distance_from_trend": -0.159301, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.179263, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.122438, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.512093, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.188953, "excess_performance": -0.134287, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.159301, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058445, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.122438, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.18972, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.235121, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110473, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.188953, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.727963, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12307940, "relative_activity": 1.983686, "balance": 0.727963, "dry_up": 1.741866, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078853, "annualized_volatility": 0.210754, "from_high_reference": -0.364465, "from_low_reference": 0.089844 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.318667, "fair_value_reference": 3.179263, "structural_low": 2.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.004831, "positive_rate": 0.451613, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.009726, "regime_survival": 0.806452, "best_return": 0.425414, "worst_return": -0.251701, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.010989, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.007996, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.137864, "worst_return": -0.237037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.139942, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.134287, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.262136, "worst_return": -0.245421, "sufficient": true }, { 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{ "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.175824, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.242857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044355, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.380597, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", 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"fair_value": 3.206122, "relative_strength": -14.981554, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.767293, "energy": 63.354413, "activity_lines": [ 3.246, 3.330727, 3.364381, 3.37529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.09, "volume": 8672908, "typical_volume": 6636505.85, "trend": 3.389333, "fair_value": 3.199904, "relative_strength": -16.358067, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.062368, "energy": 73.491006, "activity_lines": [ 3.178667, 3.278727, 3.337333, 3.35529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.87, "volume": 12938779, "typical_volume": 6552817.55, "trend": 3.367, "fair_value": 3.192596, "relative_strength": -21.71072, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.268095, "energy": 81.055097, "activity_lines": [ 3.058667, 3.193636, 3.290048, 3.321785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.91, "volume": 9310573, "typical_volume": 6319848.4, "trend": 3.344667, "fair_value": 3.185481, "relative_strength": -20.778633, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.781804, "energy": 79.37249, "activity_lines": [ 2.986667, 3.125273, 3.248667, 3.292301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.79, "volume": 12307940, "typical_volume": 6204581.25, "trend": 3.318667, "fair_value": 3.179263, "relative_strength": -23.512093, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.139295, "energy": 83.050451, "activity_lines": [ 2.902, 3.043273, 3.198143, 3.256516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }