{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65afd1bb-a32a-40a7-9a5a-51cd36dc857a", "symbol": "HBCP", "name": "Home Bancorp Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.565, "architecture_energy": 61.21, "architecture_maturity": 44.022, "architecture_confidence": 83.41, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.37, "rotation_up": 67.77, "upward_expansion": 86.15, "deceleration": 49.51, "rotation_down": 16.89, "downward_expansion": 10.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 70.585757, 69.613047, 67.630473, 65.925691 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 71.88, "trend_reference": 63.877633, "distance_from_trend": 0.125277, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.257083, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.521042, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.837894, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.151509, "excess_performance": -0.035944, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.125277, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067072, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.521042, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065096, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.048379, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090097, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.151509, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.932076, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 509974, "relative_activity": 1.00521, "balance": 1.932076, "dry_up": 1.162366, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046361, "annualized_volatility": 0.193374, "from_high_reference": -0.015208, "from_low_reference": 0.445124 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.877633, "fair_value_reference": 47.257083, "structural_low": 55.867646, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.007343, "positive_rate": 0.483871, "directional_follow_through": 0.483871, "median_excess_return": -0.002063, "regime_survival": 0.741935, "best_return": 0.132345, "worst_return": -0.107538, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.064327, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.015159, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.157949, "worst_return": -0.086666, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.040528, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.004184, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.252781, "worst_return": -0.183088, "sufficient": true }, { 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62.042613, "fair_value": 46.068933, "relative_strength": 2.735196, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.592262, "energy": 71.033253, "activity_lines": [ 68.199247, 66.813827, 64.895244, 63.600041 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 67.580102, "volume": 343046, "typical_volume": 493297.6, "trend": 62.304644, "fair_value": 46.296458, "relative_strength": -1.089894, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.281246, "energy": 57.55457, "activity_lines": [ 68.178365, 67.149903, 65.309651, 63.957299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 69.003784, "volume": 495703, "typical_volume": 502159.65, "trend": 62.593998, "fair_value": 46.534781, "relative_strength": 5.354512, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.935629, "energy": 57.022295, "activity_lines": [ 68.492037, 67.660703, 65.831785, 64.389501 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 69.899808, "volume": 876738, "typical_volume": 515846.15, "trend": 62.964049, "fair_value": 46.763684, "relative_strength": 8.285326, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.52709, "energy": 49.638196, "activity_lines": [ 69.042797, 68.251257, 66.390729, 64.860844 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 71.024816, "volume": 476400, "typical_volume": 520037.7, "trend": 63.435634, "fair_value": 47.006831, "relative_strength": 9.140157, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.506894, "energy": 50.835486, "activity_lines": [ 69.727241, 68.909452, 67.001796, 65.380893 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 71.88, "volume": 509974, "typical_volume": 507330.7, "trend": 63.877633, "fair_value": 47.257083, "relative_strength": 4.837894, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.564961, "energy": 61.209603, "activity_lines": [ 70.585757, 69.613047, 67.630473, 65.925691 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }