{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "65bb708c-7377-4da4-b115-2642e1b0362f",
    "symbol": "CLSM",
    "name": "ETC CABANA TARGET LEADING SECTOR MODERATE ETF",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 55.127,
    "architecture_energy": 28.341,
    "architecture_maturity": 66.137,
    "architecture_confidence": 85.249,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 31.16,
        "rotation_up": 31.87,
        "upward_expansion": 58.5,
        "deceleration": 88.1,
        "rotation_down": 27.5,
        "downward_expansion": 19.83
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        26.862887,
        26.933162,
        26.820771,
        26.199827
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 27.5829,
    "trend_reference": 25.41798,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.085173,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 21.458623,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.285399,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -0.586369,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.1529,
    "excess_performance": -0.034554,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.085173,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.052079,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.285399,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.008727,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.005864,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.015447,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.1529,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.781458,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 34065,
      "relative_activity": 0.612857,
      "balance": 1.781458,
      "dry_up": 0.924746,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.030028,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.166926,
      "from_high_reference": -0.018262,
      "from_low_reference": 0.268984
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 25.41798,
      "fair_value_reference": 21.458623,
      "structural_low": 22.42,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.00892,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.001845,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.015857,
        "worst_return": -0.007112,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.012328,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.026372,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.039212,
        "worst_return": -0.00996,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.021234,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.033131,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.189611,
        "worst_return": 0.015936,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.055309,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.169339,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.055309,
        "worst_return": 0.055309,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.012802,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-09-06",
        "end": "2024-12-20",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.01909,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-12-27",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.026864,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.014104,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.000964,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.100423,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.039942,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.045288,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2025-12-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.000713,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.001091,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.010401,
        "active": false
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      {
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": true
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
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        "relative_strength": -1.97037,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 107118,
        "typical_volume": 59231.05,
        "trend": 25.095272,
        "fair_value": 21.310343,
        "relative_strength": -0.599918,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 35.708442,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.972553,
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          25.893349
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 26.3009,
        "volume": 31100,
        "typical_volume": 56688.15,
        "trend": 25.183293,
        "fair_value": 21.354765,
        "relative_strength": 0.130258,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 40.130955,
        "energy": 26.364003,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.704493,
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          26.617838,
          25.971132
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 26.4343,
        "volume": 33321,
        "typical_volume": 56116.2,
        "trend": 25.289133,
        "fair_value": 21.402469,
        "relative_strength": 0.109713,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 34.599912,
        "energy": 21.889587,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.57456,
          26.831338,
          26.67217,
          26.051842
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 27.5829,
        "volume": 34065,
        "typical_volume": 55583.9,
        "trend": 25.41798,
        "fair_value": 21.458623,
        "relative_strength": -0.586369,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 55.126961,
        "energy": 28.341459,
        "activity_lines": [
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          26.933162,
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}