{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65bcab3a-8218-4bc8-875b-0582e06e924b", "symbol": "5251", "name": "JSW Pacific Corporation", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.411, "architecture_energy": 62.45, "architecture_maturity": 15.053, "architecture_confidence": 80.973, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.87, "rotation_up": 10.24, "upward_expansion": 13.28, "deceleration": 37.63, "rotation_down": 73.19, "downward_expansion": 91.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.886667, 27.288182, 28.121905, 28.709032 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 25.700001, "trend_reference": 29.82, "distance_from_trend": -0.138162, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.787179, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.191498, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -49.247487, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.210445, "excess_performance": -0.651817, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.138162, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086677, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.191498, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059406, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.492475, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07701, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.210445, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.234774, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 404160, "relative_activity": 0.293639, "balance": 2.234774, "dry_up": 0.403988, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.135588, "annualized_volatility": 0.338324, "from_high_reference": -0.553819, "from_low_reference": 0.077568 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.82, "fair_value_reference": 31.787179, "structural_low": 23.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.02459, "positive_rate": 0.37037, "directional_follow_through": 0.62963, "median_excess_return": -0.027658, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.571429, "worst_return": -0.091331, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.084466, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.071608, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.675, "worst_return": -0.160804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.375078, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.405482, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.904495, "worst_return": -0.277638, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.502823, "energy": 16.269475, "activity_lines": [ 29.476667, 29.582727, 29.357619, 29.943871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.15, "volume": 703693, "typical_volume": 1390485.5, "trend": 30.925, "fair_value": 31.667308, "relative_strength": -47.609363, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.066034, "energy": 26.943547, "activity_lines": [ 28.54, 29.214545, 29.13, 29.681075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.9, "volume": 810873, "typical_volume": 1403304.65, "trend": 30.475, "fair_value": 31.704487, "relative_strength": -50.165976, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.387503, "energy": 51.805764, "activity_lines": [ 27.05, 28.434545, 28.710238, 29.292366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.85, "volume": 305440, "typical_volume": 1380018.15, "trend": 30.116667, "fair_value": 31.748718, "relative_strength": -48.344045, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.000954, "energy": 59.878877, "activity_lines": [ 26.3, 27.867273, 28.411429, 28.993978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 25.700001, "volume": 404160, "typical_volume": 1376382.05, "trend": 29.82, "fair_value": 31.787179, "relative_strength": -49.247487, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.411448, "energy": 62.450296, "activity_lines": [ 25.886667, 27.288182, 28.121905, 28.709032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }