{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65beb984-a1ba-4380-a384-c0d234a2f228", "symbol": "RKT", "name": "RocketDNA Ltd.", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 52.497, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.713, "architecture_energy": 22.144, "architecture_maturity": 20.434, "architecture_confidence": 58.781, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.98, "rotation_up": 19.98, "upward_expansion": 5.88, "deceleration": 56.82, "rotation_down": 42.07, "downward_expansion": 67.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.022467, 0.022509, 0.02306, 0.023274 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.023, "trend_reference": 0.024117, "distance_from_trend": -0.046303, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.014112, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.629798, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.459467, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.115385, "excess_performance": -0.17909, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.046303, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038765, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.629798, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010701, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.034595, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151292, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.115385, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.356056, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6032033, "relative_activity": 0.815146, "balance": 1.356056, "dry_up": 0.607377, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.138796, "annualized_volatility": 0.701015, "from_high_reference": -0.378378, "from_low_reference": 0.916667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.024117, "fair_value_reference": 0.014112, "structural_low": 0.019, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.097222, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.566667, "median_excess_return": -0.090783, "regime_survival": 0.766667, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.259259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.081667, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.085416, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.75, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.16, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.126995, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.555556, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.266667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", 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"relative_strength": -2.636944, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.157951, "energy": 60.725465, "activity_lines": [ 0.021267, 0.022709, 0.023076, 0.023551 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.023, "volume": 6565781, "typical_volume": 7507041.7, "trend": 0.024383, "fair_value": 0.013965, "relative_strength": 11.251056, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.052146, "energy": 49.72897, "activity_lines": [ 0.021667, 0.022618, 0.023055, 0.023451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.023, "volume": 4302292, "typical_volume": 7468243.0, "trend": 0.02435, "fair_value": 0.014035, "relative_strength": 7.682619, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.352942, "energy": 36.637931, "activity_lines": [ 0.022133, 0.022564, 0.023052, 0.023361 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.023, "volume": 6032033, "typical_volume": 7399939.45, "trend": 0.024117, "fair_value": 0.014112, "relative_strength": 3.459467, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.712818, "energy": 22.144283, "activity_lines": [ 0.022467, 0.022509, 0.02306, 0.023274 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }