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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 61.356, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.004, "architecture_energy": 52.126, "architecture_maturity": 14.635, "architecture_confidence": 73.703, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.52, "rotation_up": 64.23, "upward_expansion": 84.74, "deceleration": 49.05, "rotation_down": 15.38, "downward_expansion": 9.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 148.312667, 145.675161, 138.961518, 136.306874 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 148.83, "trend_reference": 134.331025, "distance_from_trend": 0.107935, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 159.789893, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.068589, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.203366, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.091813, "excess_performance": -0.033811, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.107935, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006891, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.068589, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.186703, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.042034, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.179677, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.091813, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.057911, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2042561, "relative_activity": 0.546151, "balance": 1.057911, "dry_up": 0.886124, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074524, "annualized_volatility": 0.326817, "from_high_reference": -0.072653, "from_low_reference": 0.276752 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 134.331025, "fair_value_reference": 159.789893, "structural_low": 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132.522081 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 147.86, "volume": 3579342, "typical_volume": 4088908.1, "trend": 132.960984, "fair_value": 160.81379, "relative_strength": -2.011246, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.355066, "energy": 65.868691, "activity_lines": [ 145.345934, 140.517207, 134.547557, 133.481974 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 145.72, "volume": 3297746, "typical_volume": 4090677.3, "trend": 133.297083, "fair_value": 160.444598, "relative_strength": -2.437967, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.325832, "energy": 64.541493, "activity_lines": [ 145.984, 142.287745, 135.864949, 134.305136 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 149.38, "volume": 4336470, "typical_volume": 3965358.5, "trend": 133.885983, "fair_value": 160.119175, "relative_strength": -0.781204, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.336569, "energy": 64.871012, "activity_lines": [ 147.621333, 144.248271, 137.486685, 135.342744 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 148.83, "volume": 2042561, "typical_volume": 3739916.5, "trend": 134.331025, "fair_value": 159.789893, "relative_strength": -4.203366, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.003704, "energy": 52.126178, "activity_lines": [ 148.312667, 145.675161, 138.961518, 136.306874 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }