{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65c81594-7c07-4d66-8557-5d43e1bad4b1", "symbol": "POST", "name": "\u00d6sterreichische Post AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 76.767, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.658, "architecture_energy": 28.918, "architecture_maturity": 29.416, "architecture_confidence": 71.148, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.91, "rotation_up": 27.67, "upward_expansion": 19.8, "deceleration": 37.05, "rotation_down": 40.74, "downward_expansion": 63.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.85, 31.939091, 32.00016, 32.126924 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 30.799999, "trend_reference": 32.17376, "distance_from_trend": -0.042698, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.209732, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.091822, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.821143, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.050175, "excess_performance": -0.224422, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.042698, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030254, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.091822, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012068, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.178211, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05286, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.050175, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.496629, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 276034, "relative_activity": 1.600836, "balance": 1.496629, "dry_up": 0.962265, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031843, "annualized_volatility": 0.152034, "from_high_reference": -0.108806, "from_low_reference": 0.137794 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.17376, "fair_value_reference": 28.209732, "structural_low": 30.200001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.000946, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016184, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.140381, "worst_return": -0.1, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.008361, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.01369, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.147107, "worst_return": -0.143236, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.019684, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.037645, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.19244, "worst_return": 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.450001, "volume": 141892, "typical_volume": 202782.2, "trend": 31.95799, "fair_value": 28.123898, "relative_strength": -10.749143, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.927564, "energy": 9.472108, "activity_lines": [ 32.083334, 32.036364, 32.105112, 32.16378 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.25, "volume": 127074, "typical_volume": 195114.15, "trend": 32.059547, "fair_value": 28.153163, "relative_strength": -12.11417, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.591916, "energy": 10.87692, "activity_lines": [ 32.173334, 32.093637, 32.106947, 32.182619 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.549999, "volume": 118698, "typical_volume": 185675.55, "trend": 32.153721, "fair_value": 28.18868, "relative_strength": -10.91066, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.367139, "energy": 14.968822, "activity_lines": [ 32.326667, 32.182727, 32.138647, 32.214261 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.799999, "volume": 276034, "typical_volume": 172431.15, "trend": 32.17376, "fair_value": 28.209732, "relative_strength": -17.821143, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.657715, "energy": 28.918356, "activity_lines": [ 31.85, 31.939091, 32.00016, 32.126924 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }