{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65cafdc4-ad3c-4d41-9bee-de9ce8c9062f", "symbol": "AAJ", "name": "Sunmoon Food Company Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.78, "architecture_energy": 30.124, "architecture_maturity": 31.041, "architecture_confidence": 88.626, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.39, "rotation_up": 23.35, "upward_expansion": 3.6, "deceleration": 51.62, "rotation_down": 36.67, "downward_expansion": 69.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.021733, 0.021782, 0.022281, 0.022748 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.022, "trend_reference": 0.023367, "distance_from_trend": -0.058488, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.019891, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.106026, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.411034, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.12, "excess_performance": -0.274835, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.058488, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030429, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.106026, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108769, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.20411, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.211672, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.12, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.26724, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1245100, "relative_activity": 0.969636, "balance": 0.26724, "dry_up": 0.442395, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06993, "annualized_volatility": 0.247296, "from_high_reference": -0.352941, "from_low_reference": 0.294118 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.023367, "fair_value_reference": 0.019891, "structural_low": 0.019, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.023849, "regime_survival": 0.730769, "best_return": 0.294118, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.04881, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.065165, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.384615, "worst_return": -0.185185, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.055556, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.107143, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.052632, "worst_return": -0.222222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.255322, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.296296, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.307692, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.222222, "active": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 1221285.0, "trend": 0.0236, "fair_value": 0.019865, "relative_strength": -19.08255, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.091431, "energy": 24.964631, "activity_lines": [ 0.022, 0.021964, 0.022571, 0.023011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.021, "volume": 854200, "typical_volume": 1221835.0, "trend": 0.023467, "fair_value": 0.019872, "relative_strength": -23.201963, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.666211, "energy": 35.059703, "activity_lines": [ 0.021667, 0.021764, 0.022371, 0.022843 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.022, "volume": 1245100, "typical_volume": 1284090.0, "trend": 0.023367, "fair_value": 0.019891, "relative_strength": -20.411034, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.779913, "energy": 30.124055, "activity_lines": [ 0.021733, 0.021782, 0.022281, 0.022748 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }