{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65cb45fe-1a0f-410d-a887-e40d1c30e0cb", "symbol": "EWC", "name": "ISHARES INC MSCI CANADA ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.583, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.836, "architecture_energy": 81.577, "architecture_maturity": 11.946, "architecture_confidence": 71.579, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.94, "rotation_up": 78.47, "upward_expansion": 93.0, "deceleration": 42.16, "rotation_down": 11.13, "downward_expansion": 17.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 59.921333, 59.20933, 58.603366, 57.919985 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 61.3, "trend_reference": 57.059359, "distance_from_trend": 0.07432, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.388378, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.412821, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.785989, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.119552, "excess_performance": -0.006073, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07432, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03894, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.412821, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010664, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.00786, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003981, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.119552, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.215106, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10681905, "relative_activity": 1.164981, "balance": 1.215106, "dry_up": 0.886251, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022199, "annualized_volatility": 0.128008, "from_high_reference": -0.000326, "from_low_reference": 0.324635 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 57.059359, "fair_value_reference": 43.388378, "structural_low": 52.723518, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": 0.008394, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": -0.003117, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.099793, "worst_return": -0.095262, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.024552, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.025078, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.143613, "worst_return": -0.120179, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.051221, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.029311, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.200758, "worst_return": -0.112462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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40.624128, "energy": 26.537591, "activity_lines": [ 57.892875, 57.958988, 57.460304, 56.921216 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 58.65, "volume": 5168089, "typical_volume": 11081836.15, "trend": 56.295321, "fair_value": 42.711321, "relative_strength": -0.66441, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.447734, "energy": 32.627317, "activity_lines": [ 58.130438, 58.084783, 57.622844, 57.084932 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 59.45, "volume": 6428701, "typical_volume": 10832677.85, "trend": 56.49598, "fair_value": 42.875539, "relative_strength": 2.120996, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.4893, "energy": 45.706311, "activity_lines": [ 58.575333, 58.346545, 57.853212, 57.288459 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 59.07, "volume": 9674867, "typical_volume": 10187247.15, "trend": 56.646813, "fair_value": 43.037442, "relative_strength": 1.908218, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.285309, "energy": 55.603363, "activity_lines": [ 58.829333, 58.509575, 58.039105, 57.454525 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.39, "volume": 5719258, "typical_volume": 9471541.05, "trend": 56.828552, "fair_value": 43.207212, "relative_strength": 1.202199, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.870702, "energy": 66.562445, "activity_lines": [ 59.11, 58.696291, 58.241274, 57.631505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 61.3, "volume": 10681905, "typical_volume": 9169170.2, "trend": 57.059359, "fair_value": 43.388378, "relative_strength": 0.785989, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.836028, "energy": 81.577449, "activity_lines": [ 59.921333, 59.20933, 58.603366, 57.919985 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }