{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65cd5051-00ef-4e5b-83fe-0b30c4fec7e6", "symbol": "BMA", "name": "Banco Macro SA B ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 62.426, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.117, "architecture_energy": 17.069, "architecture_maturity": 37.618, "architecture_confidence": 81.585, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.09, "rotation_up": 24.46, "upward_expansion": 54.47, "deceleration": 90.06, "rotation_down": 29.11, "downward_expansion": 20.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 88.563333, 90.43483, 87.211934, 84.304755 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 83.65, "trend_reference": 82.967157, "distance_from_trend": 0.00823, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 61.662547, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.356577, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.801728, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.073438, "excess_performance": -0.199063, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00823, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031565, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.356577, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057381, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.018017, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083994, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.073438, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.112648, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1451302, "relative_activity": 1.04641, "balance": 1.112648, "dry_up": 0.899525, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127502, "annualized_volatility": 0.601749, "from_high_reference": -0.189094, "from_low_reference": 1.288025 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 82.967157, "fair_value_reference": 61.662547, "structural_low": 63.431863, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.012296, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.008374, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.43346, "worst_return": -0.171911, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.157343, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": 0.129492, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.585786, "worst_return": -0.150954, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.233366, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.113057, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 2.267934, "worst_return": -0.245387, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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94.99, "volume": 1043487, "typical_volume": 1588605.9, "trend": 82.94158, "fair_value": 59.905379, "relative_strength": 15.383775, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.586734, "energy": 42.143114, "activity_lines": [ 93.804282, 90.973615, 84.185815, 82.853334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 90.14, "volume": 1102353, "typical_volume": 1518083.0, "trend": 83.040435, "fair_value": 60.350259, "relative_strength": 10.751963, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.327551, "energy": 34.714268, "activity_lines": [ 92.189224, 91.591238, 85.213, 83.317748 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 89.11, "volume": 1408364, "typical_volume": 1477564.5, "trend": 83.061383, "fair_value": 60.793891, "relative_strength": 9.870675, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.580424, "energy": 26.810054, "activity_lines": [ 90.765409, 91.700613, 86.071509, 83.709333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 91.9, "volume": 1028308, "typical_volume": 1420424.15, "trend": 83.259572, "fair_value": 61.257619, "relative_strength": 11.701704, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.876258, "energy": 26.260657, "activity_lines": [ 91.07173, 91.966944, 87.098549, 84.279566 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 83.65, "volume": 1451302, "typical_volume": 1386934.15, "trend": 82.967157, "fair_value": 61.662547, "relative_strength": -1.801728, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.117046, "energy": 17.069401, "activity_lines": [ 88.563333, 90.43483, 87.211934, 84.304755 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }