{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65ce1416-6e91-4e0e-ada7-971440f06071", "symbol": "CLBT", "name": "Cellebrite DI", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 72.253, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 37.455, "architecture_energy": 30.157, "architecture_maturity": 18.652, "architecture_confidence": 42.321, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.3, "rotation_up": 52.0, "upward_expansion": 50.41, "deceleration": 33.37, "rotation_down": 24.12, "downward_expansion": 11.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.234333, 14.937455, 14.33081, 14.127462 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.01, "trend_reference": 14.128833, "distance_from_trend": 0.133144, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.633814, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.094042, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.891675, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.129852, "excess_performance": -0.057602, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.133144, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072972, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.094042, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121229, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.108917, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.181236, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.129852, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.010696, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4084450, "relative_activity": 0.439813, "balance": 1.010696, "dry_up": 0.619011, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105214, "annualized_volatility": 0.639932, "from_high_reference": -0.198699, "from_low_reference": 0.452813 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.128833, "fair_value_reference": 14.633814, "structural_low": 11.02, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.04689, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.042717, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.00161, "worst_return": -0.095391, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.011809, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.059999, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.011809, "worst_return": -0.011809, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.304885, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.251247, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.304885, "worst_return": -0.304885, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.145482, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.055755, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.173376, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041192, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076589, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.073094, "active": false }, { 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1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.047486, "energy": 35.433517, "activity_lines": [ 14.805333, 14.259455, 13.815286, 13.943032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.44, "volume": 7371797, "typical_volume": 9552078.45, "trend": 14.453333, "fair_value": 14.491026, "relative_strength": -11.296376, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.937515, "energy": 44.939343, "activity_lines": [ 15.217333, 14.533273, 13.981476, 13.998581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.215, "volume": 6576359, "typical_volume": 9435036.0, "trend": 14.3135, "fair_value": 14.533365, "relative_strength": -16.714803, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.672221, "energy": 44.225242, "activity_lines": [ 15.047667, 14.551273, 14.021, 13.983204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.75, "volume": 4961904, "typical_volume": 9416549.15, "trend": 14.2105, "fair_value": 14.580545, "relative_strength": -13.82758, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.461417, "energy": 36.347064, "activity_lines": [ 14.964, 14.644091, 14.116643, 14.011366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.01, "volume": 4084450, "typical_volume": 9286794.2, "trend": 14.128833, "fair_value": 14.633814, "relative_strength": -10.891675, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.454725, "energy": 30.156899, "activity_lines": [ 15.234333, 14.937455, 14.33081, 14.127462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }