{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65d10ad2-7b57-4030-a55b-677c09274283", "symbol": "WLDS", "name": "iShares MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.221, "architecture_energy": 32.083, "architecture_maturity": 62.499, "architecture_confidence": 88.776, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.34, "rotation_up": 33.92, "upward_expansion": 59.33, "deceleration": 88.28, "rotation_down": 27.33, "downward_expansion": 20.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.755533, 7.781455, 7.70269, 7.574611 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.904, "trend_reference": 7.4231, "distance_from_trend": 0.064784, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.140282, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.287237, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.532073, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.103448, "excess_performance": 0.052213, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.064784, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049585, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.287237, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020584, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.025321, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03535, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.103448, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.68414, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1174674, "relative_activity": 1.367367, "balance": 1.68414, "dry_up": 1.078206, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025221, "annualized_volatility": 0.133525, "from_high_reference": -0.114477, "from_low_reference": 0.294041 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.4231, "fair_value_reference": 6.140282, "structural_low": 6.654, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.034396, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.000569, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.077419, "worst_return": -0.001949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.010625, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.003009, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.163636, "worst_return": -0.15493, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.040055, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.023468, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.166564, "worst_return": -0.012938, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.07432, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.015537, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.157499, "worst_return": -0.008859, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.044907, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.029673, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031608, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101928, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.100575, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.129054, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037885, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018003, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.033873, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.099167, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"typical_volume": 905906.0, "trend": 7.395067, "fair_value": 6.122914, "relative_strength": -0.648321, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.679253, "energy": 24.847941, "activity_lines": [ 7.7004, 7.756382, 7.665543, 7.541776 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.904, "volume": 1174674, "typical_volume": 859077.1, "trend": 7.4231, "fair_value": 6.140282, "relative_strength": 2.532073, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.221355, "energy": 32.083339, "activity_lines": [ 7.755533, 7.781455, 7.70269, 7.574611 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }