{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "65d226b2-94c9-421a-8f6a-c6376d5ef6ad",
    "symbol": "EBO",
    "name": "EBOS Group Limited",
    "exchange": "NZE",
    "country": "NZ",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^NZ50",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 91.84,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -2.934,
    "architecture_energy": 17.22,
    "architecture_maturity": 15.991,
    "architecture_confidence": 60.568,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 57.63,
        "rotation_up": 41.73,
        "upward_expansion": 35.65,
        "deceleration": 39.4,
        "rotation_down": 15.72,
        "downward_expansion": 41.65
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        22.023334,
        21.734,
        21.389619,
        21.640359
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 21.74,
    "trend_reference": 22.28952,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.024654,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 31.210691,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.303444,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -16.81553,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.130166,
    "excess_performance": -0.15844,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.024654,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.082908,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.303444,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.03466,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.168155,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.104824,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.130166,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.546892,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 965113,
      "relative_activity": 1.156742,
      "balance": 0.546892,
      "dry_up": 0.988983,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.050456,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.217464,
      "from_high_reference": -0.452832,
      "from_low_reference": 0.119464
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 22.28952,
      "fair_value_reference": 31.210691,
      "structural_low": 19.42,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": -0.006639,
        "positive_rate": 0.461538,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.461538,
        "median_excess_return": -0.010334,
        "regime_survival": 0.538462,
        "best_return": 0.078596,
        "worst_return": -0.148837,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.034175,
        "positive_rate": 0.428571,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.428571,
        "median_excess_return": -0.052648,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.085486,
        "worst_return": -0.198835,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.088203,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": -0.011939,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.169756,
        "worst_return": -0.251178,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.049214,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.100283,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.052693,
        "worst_return": -0.434924,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2023-06-02",
        "end": "2023-06-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.117222,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-06-23",
        "end": "2023-11-24",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.03395,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-12-01",
        "end": "2024-04-12",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.055284,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-04-19",
        "end": "2024-05-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.004612,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-05-17",
        "end": "2024-06-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.04931,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-06-14",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.129629,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-09-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.050663,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-09-27",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.065782,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-06-20",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.001344,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-27",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.052659,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-18",
        "end": "2025-08-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.006281,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-08-29",
        "end": "2025-09-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.081305,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-09-19",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.222057,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.011818,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 31.086321,
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        "typical_volume": 1229244.75,
        "trend": 37.313009,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
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        "energy": 16.177156,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 22.67,
        "volume": 844768,
        "typical_volume": 1033533.95,
        "trend": 22.803402,
        "fair_value": 31.432177,
        "relative_strength": -16.146207,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -2.12626,
        "energy": 14.548633,
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          21.781333,
          21.256364,
          21.264095,
          21.776405
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 22.0,
        "volume": 690142,
        "typical_volume": 1016793.55,
        "trend": 22.624576,
        "fair_value": 31.352789,
        "relative_strength": -17.908174,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -3.863498,
        "energy": 20.226682,
        "activity_lines": [
          21.982667,
          21.452727,
          21.309381,
          21.724573
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 22.040001,
        "volume": 800559,
        "typical_volume": 1023129.6,
        "trend": 22.460747,
        "fair_value": 31.278726,
        "relative_strength": -16.16221,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -1.523778,
        "energy": 21.163007,
        "activity_lines": [
          22.099334,
          21.636909,
          21.363238,
          21.686859
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 21.74,
        "volume": 965113,
        "typical_volume": 834337.55,
        "trend": 22.28952,
        "fair_value": 31.210691,
        "relative_strength": -16.81553,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -2.933549,
        "energy": 17.219503,
        "activity_lines": [
          22.023334,
          21.734,
          21.389619,
          21.640359
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}