{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65da5c08-21fe-44ec-9302-2352299544e1", "symbol": "EGIE3", "name": "Engie Brasil Energia S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.573, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.166, "architecture_energy": 79.877, "architecture_maturity": 13.385, "architecture_confidence": 80.117, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.74, "rotation_up": 8.22, "upward_expansion": 18.11, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 79.45, "downward_expansion": 93.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.969333, 31.182182, 32.354238, 32.626767 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 29.73, "trend_reference": 32.753711, "distance_from_trend": -0.092317, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.378301, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.047631, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.896004, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.095988, "excess_performance": -0.038939, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092317, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020371, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.047631, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.179241, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.07896, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043938, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.095988, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.427847, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26798900, "relative_activity": 2.333697, "balance": 0.427847, "dry_up": 2.233163, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059743, "annualized_volatility": 0.288559, "from_high_reference": -0.234024, "from_low_reference": 0.110897 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.753711, "fair_value_reference": 28.378301, "structural_low": 29.200001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.009218, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.030791, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.060069, "worst_return": -0.059614, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.020701, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035483, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.097636, "worst_return": -0.142381, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.013796, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.036226, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.034125, "worst_return": -0.042732, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034419, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014505, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.006622, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.121734, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.038848, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.151709, 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"fair_value": 28.305011, "relative_strength": -0.76906, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.999507, "energy": 9.616859, "activity_lines": [ 33.460667, 33.530364, 33.70555, 33.429151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.969999, "volume": 39809200, "typical_volume": 9842005.0, "trend": 32.85848, "fair_value": 28.320009, "relative_strength": -8.930863, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.704765, "energy": 42.201458, "activity_lines": [ 32.186, 32.889091, 33.372691, 33.241508 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.389999, "volume": 17691900, "typical_volume": 10248330.0, "trend": 32.809965, "fair_value": 28.332946, "relative_strength": -10.425389, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.243738, "energy": 64.000835, "activity_lines": [ 31.067333, 32.220909, 33.000034, 33.017735 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.8, "volume": 18277700, "typical_volume": 10741695.0, "trend": 32.780046, "fair_value": 28.352534, "relative_strength": -10.821064, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.66707, "energy": 67.333943, "activity_lines": [ 30.384666, 31.685091, 32.677346, 32.823544 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.73, "volume": 26798900, "typical_volume": 11483455.0, "trend": 32.753711, "fair_value": 28.378301, "relative_strength": -7.896004, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.166199, "energy": 79.877192, "activity_lines": [ 29.969333, 31.182182, 32.354238, 32.626767 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }