{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65db769d-f61a-4839-acfb-b646f55b1cee", "symbol": "600941", "name": "China Mobile Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 58.5, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 6.999, "architecture_energy": 21.201, "architecture_maturity": 34.962, "architecture_confidence": 68.311, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.1, "rotation_up": 61.38, "upward_expansion": 35.93, "deceleration": 35.48, "rotation_down": 15.18, "downward_expansion": 22.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 95.199335, 93.274366, 93.414086, 93.639708 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 95.5, "trend_reference": 94.202654, "distance_from_trend": 0.013772, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 98.493565, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.030394, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.249002, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.00913, "excess_performance": 0.034073, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013772, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041132, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.030394, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003052, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03249, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.135404, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.00913, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.815988, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 63375891, "relative_activity": 1.516381, "balance": 1.815988, "dry_up": 1.669379, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04234, "annualized_volatility": 0.17128, "from_high_reference": -0.128729, "from_low_reference": 0.110207 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 94.202654, "fair_value_reference": 98.493565, "structural_low": 86.019997, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.016389, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.019763, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.066422, "worst_return": -0.101202, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.005005, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.064412, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.114537, "worst_return": -0.136181, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.067912, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.140693, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.108744, "worst_return": -0.124422, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"volume": 63375891, "typical_volume": 41794178.25, "trend": 94.202654, "fair_value": 98.493565, "relative_strength": -3.249002, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.998873, "energy": 21.201264, "activity_lines": [ 95.199335, 93.274366, 93.414086, 93.639708 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }