{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65dc70c3-7f4f-4f61-adb6-750fa585f2cc", "symbol": "F9D", "name": "Boustead Singapore Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 69.088, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -38.286, "architecture_energy": 46.878, "architecture_maturity": 16.066, "architecture_confidence": 67.014, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.97, "rotation_up": 20.23, "upward_expansion": 17.15, "deceleration": 46.42, "rotation_down": 62.6, "downward_expansion": 58.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.940143, 1.96831, 2.064128, 2.071713 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.91, "trend_reference": 2.066699, "distance_from_trend": -0.075821, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.262393, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.512999, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.404342, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.077295, "excess_performance": -0.23213, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075821, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043093, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.512999, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.720899, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.154043, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.528059, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.077295, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.404552, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2737600, "relative_activity": 0.850741, "balance": 0.404552, "dry_up": 0.875952, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073377, "annualized_volatility": 0.395384, "from_high_reference": -0.276515, "from_low_reference": 0.319796 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.066699, "fair_value_reference": 1.262393, "structural_low": 1.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.020287, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.002727, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.05102, "worst_return": -0.050106, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.041339, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.039236, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0679, "worst_return": 0.014778, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.055821, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.025756, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.112396, "worst_return": -0.000754, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.090633, 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"2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.035278, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.049019, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.635564, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.072727, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.017045, "active": 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"fair_value": 1.247589, "relative_strength": -10.316335, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.854474, "energy": 22.715208, "activity_lines": [ 1.997267, 2.01863, 2.099647, 2.092037 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.89585, "volume": 4573100, "typical_volume": 3269550.0, "trend": 2.062699, "fair_value": 1.254931, "relative_strength": -15.128715, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.952461, "energy": 38.958891, "activity_lines": [ 1.962875, 1.987418, 2.081323, 2.081565 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.91, "volume": 2737600, "typical_volume": 3217900.0, "trend": 2.066699, "fair_value": 1.262393, "relative_strength": -15.404342, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.286481, "energy": 46.87837, "activity_lines": [ 1.940143, 1.96831, 2.064128, 2.071713 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }