{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65dea032-bc6a-48a2-885f-dfa4a522f6bd", "symbol": "688800", "name": "Suzhou Recodeal Interconnect System Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.019, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.261, "architecture_energy": 56.194, "architecture_maturity": 16.33, "architecture_confidence": 78.515, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.57, "rotation_up": 14.09, "upward_expansion": 26.11, "deceleration": 50.69, "rotation_down": 67.01, "downward_expansion": 51.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.702, 67.678066, 74.74084, 73.625044 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 58.310001, "trend_reference": 71.033936, "distance_from_trend": -0.179125, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.178809, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.611717, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.188307, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.052623, "excess_performance": -0.009419, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.179125, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109122, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.611717, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.0743, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071883, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.605795, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.052623, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.991672, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 85622687, "relative_activity": 1.386444, "balance": 0.991672, "dry_up": 1.107449, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.24609, "annualized_volatility": 0.922412, "from_high_reference": -0.446515, "from_low_reference": 0.273876 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 71.033936, "fair_value_reference": 36.178809, "structural_low": 46.48, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.15111, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.13585, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.196186, "worst_return": 0.106034, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.526588, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.447927, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.526588, "worst_return": 0.526588, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.972507, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.800682, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.972507, "worst_return": 0.972507, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.766321, 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"start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.192192, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.154864, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.196186, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.10117, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.366155, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011304, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"fair_value": 35.684715, "relative_strength": 3.578003, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.331551, "energy": 12.255905, "activity_lines": [ 77.048668, 82.089578, 80.652205, 76.705683 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 59.200001, "volume": 66138738, "typical_volume": 61498286.8, "trend": 71.491899, "fair_value": 35.86279, "relative_strength": -2.092585, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.195759, "energy": 31.732814, "activity_lines": [ 69.202001, 77.267644, 79.00397, 75.924508 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.599998, "volume": 66273491, "typical_volume": 61945735.5, "trend": 71.059795, "fair_value": 35.982018, "relative_strength": -20.277656, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.750185, "energy": 51.09259, "activity_lines": [ 60.356667, 71.147083, 76.378414, 74.447611 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 58.310001, "volume": 85622687, "typical_volume": 61757053.4, "trend": 71.033936, "fair_value": 36.178809, "relative_strength": -7.188307, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.260757, "energy": 56.194021, "activity_lines": [ 57.702, 67.678066, 74.74084, 73.625044 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }