{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65e3f99b-0e71-44a7-900b-4ad6963ad5b7", "symbol": "NXE", "name": "NexGen Energy Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 56.382, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.305, "architecture_energy": 45.155, "architecture_maturity": 13.401, "architecture_confidence": 91.07, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.16, "rotation_up": 19.6, "upward_expansion": 5.99, "deceleration": 48.4, "rotation_down": 59.35, "downward_expansion": 81.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.396667, 13.522545, 14.267429, 14.787914 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 14.52, "trend_reference": 15.418333, "distance_from_trend": -0.058264, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.74641, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.351149, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.235129, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.034574, "excess_performance": -0.154996, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.058264, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024066, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.351149, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.297602, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.072351, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.250802, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.034574, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.466068, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7284300, "relative_activity": 1.072446, "balance": 0.466068, "dry_up": 1.291656, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09332, "annualized_volatility": 0.447233, "from_high_reference": -0.232152, "from_low_reference": 0.672811 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.418333, "fair_value_reference": 10.74641, "structural_low": 12.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.121325, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.102948, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.354953, "worst_return": -0.093995, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.159645, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.087372, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.283286, "worst_return": -0.088586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.192381, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.170959, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.71813, "worst_return": -0.105622, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.109756, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.109908, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.176715, "worst_return": 0.06644, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.273836, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.138623, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.16723, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.19907, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation 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13.92, "volume": 265800, "typical_volume": 7587880.0, "trend": 15.436, "fair_value": 10.52359, "relative_strength": -7.603644, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.045131, "energy": 52.365736, "activity_lines": [ 14.092667, 14.548, 15.258381, 15.498839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.7, "volume": 6247500, "typical_volume": 7493890.0, "trend": 15.483, "fair_value": 10.5725, "relative_strength": -9.428392, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.978604, "energy": 56.769291, "activity_lines": [ 13.943333, 14.306, 15.065429, 15.386839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.35, "volume": 5769100, "typical_volume": 7280670.0, "trend": 15.475, "fair_value": 10.612244, "relative_strength": -18.26094, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.252124, "energy": 75.911489, "activity_lines": [ 13.387333, 13.875091, 14.759333, 15.18471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.89, "volume": 7085800, "typical_volume": 7005355.0, "trend": 15.473667, "fair_value": 10.654808, "relative_strength": -14.942088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.778916, "energy": 72.450153, "activity_lines": [ 13.105333, 13.619818, 14.528714, 15.017936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.82, "volume": 14953700, "typical_volume": 7107515.0, "trend": 15.431667, "fair_value": 10.695833, "relative_strength": -15.187892, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.557089, "energy": 71.45633, "activity_lines": [ 12.935333, 13.399091, 14.30819, 14.846731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.52, "volume": 7284300, "typical_volume": 6792230.0, "trend": 15.418333, "fair_value": 10.74641, "relative_strength": -7.235129, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.305113, "energy": 45.154624, "activity_lines": [ 13.396667, 13.522545, 14.267429, 14.787914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }