{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65f0f55f-7674-45c0-bcf8-e9a0e2d7e4e7", "symbol": "MGNX", "name": "MacroGenics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.339, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.841, "architecture_energy": 19.404, "architecture_maturity": 74.314, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.34, "rotation_up": 22.28, "upward_expansion": 54.41, "deceleration": 91.07, "rotation_down": 33.32, "downward_expansion": 20.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.958, 4.138727, 4.053048, 3.75529 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 4.04, "trend_reference": 3.258, "distance_from_trend": 0.240025, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.680801, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.1369, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 41.142111, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.232044, "excess_performance": 1.044591, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.240025, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.374877, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.1369, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.234419, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.411421, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08428, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.232044, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.490543, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2690500, "relative_activity": 0.544441, "balance": 2.490543, "dry_up": 0.771038, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.168509, "annualized_volatility": 0.849845, "from_high_reference": -0.204724, "from_low_reference": 2.131783 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.258, "fair_value_reference": 4.680801, "structural_low": 1.595, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.029175, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.08685, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.181219, "worst_return": -0.738992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.316076, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.469175, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.287719, "worst_return": -0.769737, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.461239, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.699325, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.119298, "worst_return": -0.80318, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.113925, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.339729, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.714035, "worst_return": -0.941886, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-05-26", "end": "2023-06-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047059, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-06-09", "end": "2023-06-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032374, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-30", "end": "2023-11-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.196262, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011858, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward 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"Extended", "return": -0.462264, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.139241, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010929, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.157895, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.94, "volume": 1581539, "typical_volume": 2493343.0, "trend": 5.891, "fair_value": 14.301795, "relative_strength": -23.902912, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", 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"relative_strength": 59.746905, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.123823, "energy": 53.324407, "activity_lines": [ 4.476, 4.329455, 3.947, 3.521118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.49, "volume": 4926646, "typical_volume": 5905970.7, "trend": 3.045333, "fair_value": 4.707532, "relative_strength": 69.514576, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.588845, "energy": 51.67473, "activity_lines": [ 4.51, 4.386, 4.035333, 3.620753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.7, "volume": 4983809, "typical_volume": 5956918.6, "trend": 3.115, "fair_value": 4.701314, "relative_strength": 40.271816, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.187911, "energy": 31.769859, "activity_lines": [ 4.245333, 4.271818, 4.036524, 3.662989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.69, "volume": 2640212, "typical_volume": 5007223.6, "trend": 3.184333, "fair_value": 4.692917, "relative_strength": 37.414217, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.865216, "energy": 19.097639, "activity_lines": [ 4.006, 4.165818, 4.029762, 3.700086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.04, "volume": 2690500, "typical_volume": 4941769.7, "trend": 3.258, "fair_value": 4.680801, "relative_strength": 41.142111, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.841154, "energy": 19.403778, "activity_lines": [ 3.958, 4.138727, 4.053048, 3.75529 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }