{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65f2ac7a-cf2c-4db0-9a5f-09bbc52eb9b5", "symbol": "600917", "name": "Chongqing Gas Group Corporation Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.01, "architecture_energy": 34.798, "architecture_maturity": 88.049, "architecture_confidence": 63.157, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.62, "rotation_up": 25.88, "upward_expansion": 16.73, "deceleration": 66.94, "rotation_down": 37.19, "downward_expansion": 64.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.83, 4.816642, 4.951425, 5.093111 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.82, "trend_reference": 5.277358, "distance_from_trend": -0.086664, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.758767, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.163015, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.757034, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.164645, "excess_performance": -0.121441, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086664, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055191, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.163015, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050076, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11757, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037908, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.164645, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.67811, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22478568, "relative_activity": 0.782795, "balance": 0.67811, "dry_up": 0.779998, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050254, "annualized_volatility": 0.186781, "from_high_reference": -0.259601, "from_low_reference": 0.047826 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.277358, "fair_value_reference": 5.758767, "structural_low": 4.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.003578, "positive_rate": 0.451613, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.004645, "regime_survival": 0.806452, "best_return": 0.162214, "worst_return": -0.096817, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.040818, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.023123, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.403585, "worst_return": -0.173759, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.059286, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.05018, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.159699, "worst_return": -0.150268, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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21160290, "typical_volume": 54250216.4, "trend": 5.346691, "fair_value": 5.793281, "relative_strength": -7.885351, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.892402, "energy": 75.236273, "activity_lines": [ 4.786333, 4.876187, 5.049387, 5.190341 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.75, "volume": 26004970, "typical_volume": 40017712.75, "trend": 5.320691, "fair_value": 5.781307, "relative_strength": -11.062497, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.724569, "energy": 55.487655, "activity_lines": [ 4.778, 4.832097, 5.005622, 5.151845 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.89, "volume": 19949114, "typical_volume": 33003573.15, "trend": 5.299691, "fair_value": 5.770416, "relative_strength": -8.444564, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.719028, "energy": 43.665051, "activity_lines": [ 4.825333, 4.826004, 4.979857, 5.124058 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.82, "volume": 22478568, "typical_volume": 28715771.35, "trend": 5.277358, "fair_value": 5.758767, "relative_strength": -11.757034, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.009944, "energy": 34.798324, "activity_lines": [ 4.83, 4.816642, 4.951425, 5.093111 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }