{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65f6f9bb-854e-4517-af32-7e9589a1330d", "symbol": "SHR", "name": "S Hotels and Resorts Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 84.475, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -10.976, "architecture_energy": 11.139, "architecture_maturity": 25.371, "architecture_confidence": 41.696, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.4, "rotation_up": 25.11, "upward_expansion": 33.84, "deceleration": 63.53, "rotation_down": 44.91, "downward_expansion": 22.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.65, 1.667455, 1.649714, 1.64897 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.61, "trend_reference": 1.651056, "distance_from_trend": -0.024866, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.908682, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.156486, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.790039, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.003298, "excess_performance": -0.195623, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024866, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024669, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.156486, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04531, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1279, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027638, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.003298, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.393951, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20143000, "relative_activity": 1.699046, "balance": 0.393951, "dry_up": 1.249648, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046823, "annualized_volatility": 0.33405, "from_high_reference": -0.159348, "from_low_reference": 0.15952 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.651056, "fair_value_reference": 1.908682, "structural_low": 1.48, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.030986, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.023708, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.220994, "worst_return": -0.122807, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.070176, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.038823, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.358824, "worst_return": -0.231344, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.145699, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.157568, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.164706, "worst_return": -0.31829, "sufficient": false 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"mixed", "direction": 30.099861, "energy": 50.978181, "activity_lines": [ 1.706667, 1.666182, 1.644593, 1.648293 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.69, "volume": 14722200, "typical_volume": 14464705.0, "trend": 1.650845, "fair_value": 1.927559, "relative_strength": -10.629561, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.868899, "energy": 51.340981, "activity_lines": [ 1.708, 1.675455, 1.648783, 1.651146 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.63, "volume": 14623500, "typical_volume": 12546085.0, "trend": 1.651012, "fair_value": 1.921162, "relative_strength": -13.787337, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.54025, "energy": 20.240914, "activity_lines": [ 1.681333, 1.672364, 1.648238, 1.649801 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.68, "volume": 9772000, "typical_volume": 11672460.0, "trend": 1.651878, "fair_value": 1.914725, "relative_strength": -9.896948, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.007011, "energy": 10.496934, "activity_lines": [ 1.675333, 1.677273, 1.652524, 1.651671 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.61, "volume": 20143000, "typical_volume": 11855475.0, "trend": 1.651056, "fair_value": 1.908682, "relative_strength": -12.790039, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.976072, "energy": 11.139474, "activity_lines": [ 1.65, 1.667455, 1.649714, 1.64897 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }