{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "65f9afe0-3e43-4379-ac10-66c470e184db",
    "symbol": "ESEM",
    "name": "Invesco Markets II PLC - Invesco MSCI Emerging Markets ESG Universal Screened UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "EBS",
    "country": "CH",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^SSMI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 51.798,
    "architecture_energy": 28.185,
    "architecture_maturity": 68.384,
    "architecture_confidence": 93.434,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 32.36,
        "rotation_up": 31.32,
        "upward_expansion": 58.89,
        "deceleration": 88.16,
        "rotation_down": 27.53,
        "downward_expansion": 20.22
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        57.252665,
        57.470545,
        56.949642,
        55.47914
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 58.599998,
    "trend_reference": 53.648333,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.092299,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 39.611314,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.479375,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 6.624112,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.169427,
    "excess_performance": 0.086544,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.092299,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.081885,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.479375,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.038128,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.066241,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.149814,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.169427,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.546445,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 9114,
      "relative_activity": 1.668406,
      "balance": 2.546445,
      "dry_up": 0.94802,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.035508,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.263236,
      "from_high_reference": -0.02674,
      "from_low_reference": 0.419918
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 53.648333,
      "fair_value_reference": 39.611314,
      "structural_low": 45.845001,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": -0.003727,
        "positive_rate": 0.444444,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.444444,
        "median_excess_return": 0.002687,
        "regime_survival": 0.444444,
        "best_return": 0.133882,
        "worst_return": -0.028292,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.026579,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.017855,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.226413,
        "worst_return": 0.008891,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.026337,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.036609,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.119515,
        "worst_return": 0.006801,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.067579,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.027658,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.083615,
        "worst_return": 0.051543,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.010469,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-09-06",
        "end": "2024-11-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.062473,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-08",
        "end": "2024-12-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.06488,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-12-27",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.018497,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.003646,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.004657,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.008718,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.033486,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.058757,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-09",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.027695,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.27529,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.150978,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-04-24",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.042593,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.03956,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 277.6,
        "trend": 31.492833,
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      },
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      },
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        "relative_strength": 13.486759,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.730413,
        "energy": 75.526681,
        "activity_lines": [
          52.547001,
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          50.366286,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 56.880001,
        "volume": 36375,
        "typical_volume": 7711.05,
        "trend": 48.4255,
        "fair_value": 37.482628,
        "relative_strength": 21.605499,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 86.730246,
        "energy": 88.098476,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 55.720001,
        "volume": 2862,
        "typical_volume": 7828.75,
        "trend": 48.784,
        "fair_value": 37.641058,
        "relative_strength": 17.333382,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 74.374323,
        "energy": 83.554633,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 56.060001,
        "volume": 4041,
        "typical_volume": 8003.55,
        "trend": 49.138334,
        "fair_value": 37.803333,
        "relative_strength": 14.935116,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 72.864884,
        "energy": 82.135362,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 59.049999,
        "volume": 5179,
        "typical_volume": 7261.0,
        "trend": 49.587834,
        "fair_value": 37.981122,
        "relative_strength": 19.908612,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 85.730524,
        "energy": 88.409231,
        "activity_lines": [
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          52.882477,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 57.139999,
        "volume": 165,
        "typical_volume": 7206.95,
        "trend": 50.0005,
        "fair_value": 38.143269,
        "relative_strength": 16.673289,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.788159,
        "energy": 78.766156,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 58.220001,
        "volume": 61,
        "typical_volume": 6837.1,
        "trend": 50.427167,
        "fair_value": 38.307468,
        "relative_strength": 15.474701,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 72.776641,
        "energy": 79.991985,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 60.099998,
        "volume": 426,
        "typical_volume": 6547.5,
        "trend": 50.976167,
        "fair_value": 38.491955,
        "relative_strength": 17.938467,
        "stage": 2,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 57.389999,
        "volume": 77,
        "typical_volume": 6317.15,
        "trend": 51.399834,
        "fair_value": 38.657212,
        "relative_strength": 9.055465,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.207684,
        "energy": 59.866118,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 58.490002,
        "volume": 326,
        "typical_volume": 6064.15,
        "trend": 51.826834,
        "fair_value": 38.830994,
        "relative_strength": 8.808299,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.038467,
        "energy": 59.194411,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 57.919998,
        "volume": 3258,
        "typical_volume": 5902.85,
        "trend": 52.2455,
        "fair_value": 38.991603,
        "relative_strength": 8.792073,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.931534,
        "energy": 56.166385,
        "activity_lines": [
          58.276666,
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          56.027857,
          54.428968
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 55.32,
        "volume": 4102,
        "typical_volume": 5853.45,
        "trend": 52.574667,
        "fair_value": 39.137853,
        "relative_strength": 2.891851,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.317048,
        "energy": 36.057323,
        "activity_lines": [
          57.242,
          57.625091,
          56.153357,
          54.627323
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 56.369999,
        "volume": 6210,
        "typical_volume": 5761.85,
        "trend": 52.930667,
        "fair_value": 39.283429,
        "relative_strength": 4.698677,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 41.111833,
        "energy": 27.967639,
        "activity_lines": [
          56.750666,
          57.412181,
          56.367333,
          54.872183
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 57.029999,
        "volume": 1289,
        "typical_volume": 5639.85,
        "trend": 53.2915,
        "fair_value": 39.439423,
        "relative_strength": 5.500216,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 36.221707,
        "energy": 22.074852,
        "activity_lines": [
          56.727999,
          57.307454,
          56.605262,
          55.136656
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 58.599998,
        "volume": 9114,
        "typical_volume": 5462.7,
        "trend": 53.648333,
        "fair_value": 39.611314,
        "relative_strength": 6.624112,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 51.798257,
        "energy": 28.184814,
        "activity_lines": [
          57.252665,
          57.470545,
          56.949642,
          55.47914
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}