{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65fa3927-ec8e-45fc-aa21-6b6d6bb0c0b7", "symbol": "6431", "name": "Kuangli Bio-Tech Holdings Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.835, "architecture_energy": 31.358, "architecture_maturity": 65.911, "architecture_confidence": 63.331, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.88, "rotation_up": 25.37, "upward_expansion": 15.03, "deceleration": 66.25, "rotation_down": 42.56, "downward_expansion": 67.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.150001, 18.052728, 18.61881, 19.646237 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 18.950001, "trend_reference": 21.48, "distance_from_trend": -0.117784, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.000641, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.05274, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.446241, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.282197, "excess_performance": -0.723569, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.117784, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084984, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.05274, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093832, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.354462, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052813, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.282197, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.461211, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 715151, "relative_activity": 1.142364, "balance": 0.461211, "dry_up": 0.973308, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101279, "annualized_volatility": 0.356954, "from_high_reference": -0.407812, "from_low_reference": 0.23052 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.48, "fair_value_reference": 18.000641, "structural_low": 15.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.028947, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.02668, "regime_survival": 0.848485, "best_return": 0.319502, "worst_return": -0.151703, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.019868, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.05088, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.271186, "worst_return": -0.227941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.028436, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.128697, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.657321, "worst_return": -0.224265, "sufficient": true }, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.900319, "energy": 57.804022, "activity_lines": [ 18.31, 18.7, 19.715, 21.139355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.5, "volume": 427001, "typical_volume": 720469.9, "trend": 22.855, "fair_value": 18.038141, "relative_strength": -37.912216, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.844477, "energy": 61.922548, "activity_lines": [ 17.986667, 18.389091, 19.395238, 20.765914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.200001, "volume": 325002, "typical_volume": 680619.55, "trend": 22.405, "fair_value": 18.023397, "relative_strength": -39.895948, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.404068, "energy": 59.105885, "activity_lines": [ 17.643334, 18.087273, 19.084048, 20.401075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.6, "volume": 936015, "typical_volume": 692870.25, "trend": 22.03, "fair_value": 18.00609, "relative_strength": -40.781635, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.201297, "energy": 55.047825, "activity_lines": [ 17.243334, 17.741818, 18.752857, 20.026559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.950001, "volume": 461100, "typical_volume": 665620.05, "trend": 21.765, "fair_value": 18.003526, "relative_strength": -33.606492, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.425459, "energy": 43.537505, "activity_lines": [ 17.733334, 17.9, 18.67881, 19.82785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 18.950001, "volume": 715151, "typical_volume": 626027.1, "trend": 21.48, "fair_value": 18.000641, "relative_strength": -35.446241, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.835084, "energy": 31.358188, "activity_lines": [ 18.150001, 18.052728, 18.61881, 19.646237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }