{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65fb38d6-92b7-4058-bce5-6c57f01f48c7", "symbol": "A17U", "name": "CapitaLand Ascendas REIT", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.737, "architecture_energy": 9.348, "architecture_maturity": 18.399, "architecture_confidence": 78.633, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.69, "rotation_up": 22.99, "upward_expansion": 28.66, "deceleration": 45.64, "rotation_down": 33.22, "downward_expansion": 46.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.522667, 2.518364, 2.512966, 2.523025 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.51, "trend_reference": 2.556591, "distance_from_trend": -0.018224, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.480178, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.012024, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.385623, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.064981, "excess_performance": -0.219816, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018224, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022217, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.012024, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005946, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.193856, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054464, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.064981, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.597313, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 99911459, "relative_activity": 1.152422, "balance": 0.597313, "dry_up": 1.232806, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026356, "annualized_volatility": 0.125648, "from_high_reference": -0.103407, "from_low_reference": 0.052858 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.556591, "fair_value_reference": 2.480178, "structural_low": 2.383988, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.00734, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": 0.005571, "regime_survival": 0.45, "best_return": 0.129033, "worst_return": -0.104693, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.007407, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.010752, "regime_survival": 0.090909, "best_return": 0.06347, "worst_return": -0.052568, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.053102, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.007465, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.11885, "worst_return": -0.032924, "sufficient": true 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"active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038911, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032967, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.044784, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044118, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", 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"typical_volume": 85182658.8, "trend": 2.568777, "fair_value": 2.477538, "relative_strength": -19.433106, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.865113, "energy": 22.476966, "activity_lines": [ 2.504667, 2.507636, 2.507353, 2.52643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.57, "volume": 122529400, "typical_volume": 86020108.8, "trend": 2.564004, "fair_value": 2.479176, "relative_strength": -16.936865, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.954275, "energy": 4.665172, "activity_lines": [ 2.524667, 2.518909, 2.513178, 2.526509 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.51, "volume": 99911459, "typical_volume": 86696911.75, "trend": 2.556591, "fair_value": 2.480178, "relative_strength": -19.385623, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.736803, "energy": 9.348071, "activity_lines": [ 2.522667, 2.518364, 2.512966, 2.523025 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }