{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65fbeab0-d2ab-486c-9463-a6d2043a2362", "symbol": "CBB", "name": "CleanBnB S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.377, "architecture_energy": 40.316, "architecture_maturity": 36.633, "architecture_confidence": 91.595, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.66, "rotation_up": 23.84, "upward_expansion": 6.21, "deceleration": 56.83, "rotation_down": 54.16, "downward_expansion": 77.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.7304, 0.733927, 0.73979, 0.769439 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.714, "trend_reference": 0.8227, "distance_from_trend": -0.132126, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.108494, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.355883, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.006625, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.278788, "excess_performance": -0.44968, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.132126, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095338, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.355883, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035184, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.350066, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008775, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.278788, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.317125, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 158400, "relative_activity": 1.886613, "balance": 0.317125, "dry_up": 1.724631, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076923, "annualized_volatility": 0.442653, "from_high_reference": -0.424194, "from_low_reference": 0.065672 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.8227, "fair_value_reference": 1.108494, "structural_low": 0.67, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.01164, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.433333, "median_excess_return": -0.028251, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.373737, "worst_return": -0.145133, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.015037, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.042705, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.212121, "worst_return": -0.257674, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.04878, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.072511, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.388889, "worst_return": -0.293805, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.007466, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.121357, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.217172, "worst_return": -0.178423, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054167, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034884, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.069767, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052419, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.066079, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090551, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039823, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.070833, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02459, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016807, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012931, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.366372, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.175, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01108, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.15, "volume": 18400, "typical_volume": 130880.0, "trend": 1.059833, "fair_value": 1.118892, "relative_strength": 1.188298, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.88, "volume": 203200, "typical_volume": 67040.0, "trend": 0.861933, "fair_value": 1.118596, "relative_strength": -22.751784, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.9097, "energy": 16.346256, "activity_lines": [ 0.7652, 0.743491, 0.761171, 0.802338 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.726, "volume": 264800, "typical_volume": 77560.0, "trend": 0.852933, "fair_value": 1.116391, "relative_strength": -34.445374, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.22187, "energy": 27.028837, "activity_lines": [ 0.761067, 0.740945, 0.75481, 0.793568 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.722, "volume": 91200, "typical_volume": 78280.0, "trend": 0.844333, "fair_value": 1.114224, "relative_strength": -33.79438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.642864, "energy": 26.531943, "activity_lines": [ 0.7536, 0.738509, 0.7492, 0.78512 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.722, "volume": 64800, "typical_volume": 78200.0, "trend": 0.834733, "fair_value": 1.111353, "relative_strength": -33.293004, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.894785, "energy": 24.357852, "activity_lines": [ 0.743467, 0.736582, 0.744533, 0.777228 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.714, "volume": 158400, "typical_volume": 83960.0, "trend": 0.8227, "fair_value": 1.108494, "relative_strength": -35.006625, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.376555, "energy": 40.316294, "activity_lines": [ 0.7304, 0.733927, 0.73979, 0.769439 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }