{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65fbfcf9-5548-4cb0-b390-1d2788998d40", "symbol": "300152", "name": "Xiong'an New Power Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.211, "architecture_energy": 57.367, "architecture_maturity": 48.395, "architecture_confidence": 94.768, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.38, "rotation_up": 19.93, "upward_expansion": 10.86, "deceleration": 43.84, "rotation_down": 58.78, "downward_expansion": 84.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.470667, 1.531818, 1.658524, 1.81 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.51, "trend_reference": 1.988333, "distance_from_trend": -0.24057, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.886987, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.476963, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.9712, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.28436, "excess_performance": -0.29176, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.24057, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110365, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.476963, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128495, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.339712, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013332, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.28436, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.717914, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 99270945, "relative_activity": 0.920838, "balance": 0.717914, "dry_up": 0.910268, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.165053, "annualized_volatility": 0.727379, "from_high_reference": -0.533951, "from_low_reference": 0.126866 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.988333, "fair_value_reference": 2.886987, "structural_low": 1.34, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.021075, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": 0.023907, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.327014, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.078704, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.032628, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 2.98895, "worst_return": -0.275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.080375, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.054593, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 2.672489, "worst_return": -0.419444, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.463252, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.277686, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.105793, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.216667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.257525, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 1.58, "volume": 96425830, "typical_volume": 122544216.2, "trend": 2.083, "fair_value": 2.923141, "relative_strength": -38.603493, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.532721, "energy": 55.043694, "activity_lines": [ 1.63, 1.684727, 1.837429, 1.96243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.49, "volume": 102634837, "typical_volume": 118410754.9, "trend": 2.064333, "fair_value": 2.914231, "relative_strength": -35.528235, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.83298, "energy": 62.73903, "activity_lines": [ 1.574, 1.642364, 1.788619, 1.924172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.37, "volume": 101700678, "typical_volume": 114846531.75, "trend": 2.036, "fair_value": 2.904679, "relative_strength": -40.057346, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.701494, "energy": 62.618434, "activity_lines": [ 1.497333, 1.586545, 1.733095, 1.879376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.46, "volume": 88919169, "typical_volume": 109326729.6, "trend": 2.009333, "fair_value": 2.895833, "relative_strength": -33.902711, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.791258, "energy": 65.482969, "activity_lines": [ 1.472667, 1.550909, 1.691, 1.842215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.51, "volume": 99270945, "typical_volume": 107804985.1, "trend": 1.988333, "fair_value": 2.886987, "relative_strength": -33.9712, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.210825, "energy": 57.367199, "activity_lines": [ 1.470667, 1.531818, 1.658524, 1.81 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }