{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65fe1b85-1f12-4f49-be98-443a9f68b3be", "symbol": "VLED", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy Low Vol Europe UCITS ETF Dis", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.318, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.004, "architecture_energy": 85.145, "architecture_maturity": 34.79, "architecture_confidence": 77.583, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.89, "rotation_up": 72.8, "upward_expansion": 94.7, "deceleration": 44.13, "rotation_down": 18.08, "downward_expansion": 19.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 172.409335, 171.344729, 168.356812, 166.469056 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 174.220001, "trend_reference": 164.377331, "distance_from_trend": 0.059879, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 142.929032, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.218927, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.389031, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.072777, "excess_performance": 0.008137, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059879, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035126, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.218927, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056139, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.01389, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02065, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.072777, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.086651, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5, "relative_activity": 0.090171, "balance": 0.086651, "dry_up": 0.387737, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014544, "annualized_volatility": 0.142675, "from_high_reference": -0.002062, "from_low_reference": 0.198428 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 164.377331, "fair_value_reference": 142.929032, "structural_low": 150.692321, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.006924, "positive_rate": 0.540541, "directional_follow_through": 0.540541, "median_excess_return": -0.007606, "regime_survival": 0.72973, "best_return": 0.082551, "worst_return": -0.082917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.024008, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.002558, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.068093, "worst_return": -0.043903, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.042873, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.033201, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.086752, "worst_return": -0.114462, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-24", "close": 171.779999, "volume": 55, "typical_volume": 61.9, "trend": 163.29495, "fair_value": 142.255205, "relative_strength": 5.098803, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.655064, "energy": 86.391191, "activity_lines": [ 171.417334, 169.75491, 166.757209, 165.268636 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 171.520004, "volume": 21, "typical_volume": 56.15, "trend": 163.838546, "fair_value": 142.583996, "relative_strength": 2.636761, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.558711, "energy": 79.00673, "activity_lines": [ 171.542669, 170.371638, 167.45595, 165.799285 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 174.220001, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 55.45, "trend": 164.377331, "fair_value": 142.929032, "relative_strength": 1.389031, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.004331, "energy": 85.14483, "activity_lines": [ 172.409335, 171.344729, 168.356812, 166.469056 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }