{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65fed698-1c90-479b-b68a-8410f8dd43c4", "symbol": "TELB3", "name": "Telecomunica\u00e7\u00f5es Brasileiras S.A. - Telebras", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.833, "architecture_energy": 57.718, "architecture_maturity": 74.895, "architecture_confidence": 65.277, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.02, "rotation_up": 27.78, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 66.86, "rotation_down": 45.61, "downward_expansion": 70.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.406, 10.374364, 11.175143, 11.778817 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.42, "trend_reference": 12.24, "distance_from_trend": -0.148693, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.360962, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.220116, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.954643, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.069643, "excess_performance": -0.012594, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.148693, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011415, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.220116, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178927, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.149546, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078743, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.069643, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.6, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1600, "relative_activity": 0.621359, "balance": 0.6, "dry_up": 0.504854, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045549, "annualized_volatility": 0.439285, "from_high_reference": -0.34875, "from_low_reference": 0.076446 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.24, "fair_value_reference": 13.360962, "structural_low": 10.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.039394, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.039486, "regime_survival": 0.871795, "best_return": 0.406475, "worst_return": -0.407883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.051073, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.076331, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.212174, "worst_return": -0.493886, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.113672, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.215109, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.150895, "worst_return": -0.55102, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.0927, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.359743, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.012174, "worst_return": -0.710018, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.106887, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007746, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117871, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.151304, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007591, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.158621, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053488, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.070248, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020979, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039035, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00074, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.11194, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09009, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022571, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 16.9, "volume": 27400, "typical_volume": 23240.0, "trend": 17.080666, "fair_value": 45.865325, "relative_strength": -5.368757, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", 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"fair_value": 13.76641, "relative_strength": -8.054644, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.588936, "energy": 56.189925, "activity_lines": [ 12.390667, 12.868182, 13.231238, 12.947828 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 11.1, "volume": 1300, "typical_volume": 4790.0, "trend": 12.463333, "fair_value": 13.725064, "relative_strength": -14.654822, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.671599, "energy": 71.408117, "activity_lines": [ 11.879333, 12.480182, 13.035667, 12.862129 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 10.1, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4715.0, "trend": 12.46, "fair_value": 13.679231, "relative_strength": -20.574254, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -56.197902, "energy": 81.459636, "activity_lines": [ 11.188, 11.966, 12.747429, 12.709656 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 10.4, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4635.0, "trend": 12.446667, "fair_value": 13.636603, "relative_strength": -19.726508, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -57.240621, "energy": 84.649687, "activity_lines": [ 10.79, 11.572909, 12.49419, 12.576753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 10.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3755.0, "trend": 12.39, "fair_value": 13.585321, "relative_strength": -22.585093, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -59.311294, "energy": 85.637189, "activity_lines": [ 10.4, 11.175091, 12.206667, 12.418903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.1, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 3350.0, "trend": 12.354667, "fair_value": 13.538462, "relative_strength": -22.734552, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.542463, "energy": 90.937995, "activity_lines": [ 10.2, 10.861091, 11.948143, 12.271161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.19, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 2825.0, "trend": 12.319333, "fair_value": 13.488718, "relative_strength": -19.507639, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.473027, "energy": 88.57084, "activity_lines": [ 10.15, 10.625273, 11.712, 12.131505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.45, "volume": 700, "typical_volume": 2735.0, "trend": 12.286333, "fair_value": 13.441603, "relative_strength": -16.89617, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.893874, "energy": 85.689753, "activity_lines": [ 10.247333, 10.495091, 11.516571, 12.010903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.54, "volume": 2400, "typical_volume": 2750.0, "trend": 12.271, "fair_value": 13.401474, "relative_strength": -17.210538, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.611921, "energy": 64.787968, "activity_lines": [ 10.351333, 10.427636, 11.344286, 11.898237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.42, "volume": 1600, "typical_volume": 2575.0, "trend": 12.24, "fair_value": 13.360962, "relative_strength": -14.954643, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.83289, "energy": 57.717538, "activity_lines": [ 10.406, 10.374364, 11.175143, 11.778817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }