{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "66004ca4-9797-4b4b-8df1-bcf35cd0cf20",
    "symbol": "HEQT",
    "name": "SIMPLIFY EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS SIMPLIFY HEDGED EQUITY ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 53.506,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 88.627,
    "architecture_energy": 68.902,
    "architecture_maturity": 33.968,
    "architecture_confidence": 70.049,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 8.35,
        "rotation_up": 69.36,
        "upward_expansion": 86.81,
        "deceleration": 52.23,
        "rotation_down": 20.41,
        "downward_expansion": 11.14
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        33.8838,
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        33.417117,
        33.077598
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      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 34.4494,
    "trend_reference": 32.720633,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.052834,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 28.671349,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.201527,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -4.352695,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.065354,
    "excess_performance": -0.06027,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.052834,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.018983,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.201527,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.012609,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.043527,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.012592,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.065354,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.233647,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 216542,
      "relative_activity": 0.715842,
      "balance": 1.233647,
      "dry_up": 0.75412,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.012639,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.073203,
      "from_high_reference": -0.000548,
      "from_low_reference": 0.142185
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 32.720633,
      "fair_value_reference": 28.671349,
      "structural_low": 30.75,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 33,
        "median_return": 0.009598,
        "positive_rate": 0.787879,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.787879,
        "median_excess_return": -0.001734,
        "regime_survival": 0.818182,
        "best_return": 0.031379,
        "worst_return": -0.056876,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 12,
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        "positive_rate": 0.833333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
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        "worst_return": -0.026271,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
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        "worst_return": -0.008211,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "positive_rate": 1.0,
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        "worst_return": 0.100356,
        "sufficient": false
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "end": "2025-05-16",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
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        "relative_strength": -5.611919,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 372712.85,
        "trend": 32.111072,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 384884.8,
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        "relative_strength": -4.652276,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 64.192235,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 388382.85,
        "trend": 32.229979,
        "fair_value": 28.144585,
        "relative_strength": -4.713897,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.960133,
        "energy": 58.609911,
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "direction": 64.031239,
        "energy": 51.679659,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 33.4725,
        "volume": 520968,
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        "trend": 32.421487,
        "fair_value": 28.341341,
        "relative_strength": -4.16565,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 356851.95,
        "trend": 32.486871,
        "fair_value": 28.407722,
        "relative_strength": -4.471971,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 78.596755,
        "energy": 75.547274,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 33.57,
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        "typical_volume": 354199.8,
        "trend": 32.545258,
        "fair_value": 28.472099,
        "relative_strength": -3.424817,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.052836,
        "energy": 74.184791,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.563102,
          33.444188,
          33.1054,
          32.832132
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 33.46,
        "volume": 256317,
        "typical_volume": 324372.5,
        "trend": 32.590666,
        "fair_value": 28.53517,
        "relative_strength": -3.069107,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.320055,
        "energy": 64.259584,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.544333,
          33.464178,
          33.178939,
          32.891148
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 33.68,
        "volume": 254590,
        "typical_volume": 312588.65,
        "trend": 32.648754,
        "fair_value": 28.600673,
        "relative_strength": -3.345931,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.794399,
        "energy": 58.165427,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.5975,
          33.516354,
          33.266465,
          32.961427
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 34.4494,
        "volume": 216542,
        "typical_volume": 302499.65,
        "trend": 32.720633,
        "fair_value": 28.671349,
        "relative_strength": -4.352695,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 88.627474,
        "energy": 68.902311,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.8838,
          33.699327,
          33.417117,
          33.077598
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}