{ "ticker": { "uuid": "660cc28a-3dbc-473d-97f7-042ca4cdce85", "symbol": "CRVS", "name": "Corvus Pharmaceuticals Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.762, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.663, "architecture_energy": 13.788, "architecture_maturity": 21.573, "architecture_confidence": 48.343, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.46, "rotation_up": 26.16, "upward_expansion": 18.84, "deceleration": 51.58, "rotation_down": 35.31, "downward_expansion": 59.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.821333, 13.858909, 13.718905, 14.184602 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 13.92, "trend_reference": 15.056833, "distance_from_trend": -0.075503, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.257564, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.224508, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.427977, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.319648, "excess_performance": -0.507102, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075503, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.135522, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.224508, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.669706, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.04428, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.353781, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.319648, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.208637, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4034882, "relative_activity": 0.626688, "balance": 1.208637, "dry_up": 0.689559, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.136516, "annualized_volatility": 0.65222, "from_high_reference": -0.483488, "from_low_reference": 2.267606 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.056833, "fair_value_reference": 6.257564, "structural_low": 10.83, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.025529, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.078438, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.936585, "worst_return": -0.185393, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.022472, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.058314, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.82967, "worst_return": -0.303922, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 1.377026, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 1.243093, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 2.137255, "worst_return": 0.034091, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 1.960227, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 1.596577, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.007576, "worst_return": 0.578431, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.485714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.30131, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.256927, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038388, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.073009, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.189394, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.353659, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.341463, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", 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"energy": 6.390489, "activity_lines": [ 13.388, 13.003636, 13.728357, 14.262634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.67, "volume": 7315558, "typical_volume": 6867626.6, "trend": 14.195167, "fair_value": 5.964712, "relative_strength": 23.346451, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.10244, "energy": 18.400509, "activity_lines": [ 14.366, 13.452364, 13.849714, 14.373484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.9, "volume": 5833568, "typical_volume": 6907066.6, "trend": 14.442167, "fair_value": 6.042564, "relative_strength": 20.548803, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.822755, "energy": 19.273837, "activity_lines": [ 14.784, 13.757273, 13.902024, 14.418957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.07, "volume": 3818708, "typical_volume": 6836027.55, "trend": 14.621167, "fair_value": 6.111667, "relative_strength": 6.222651, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.572, "energy": 24.240341, "activity_lines": [ 14.394, 13.741273, 13.796048, 14.33043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.26, "volume": 4071535, "typical_volume": 6747862.35, "trend": 14.819167, "fair_value": 6.182692, "relative_strength": 5.837329, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.182951, "energy": 15.1958, "activity_lines": [ 13.99, 13.746, 13.721143, 14.242613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.92, "volume": 4034882, "typical_volume": 6438424.15, "trend": 15.056833, "fair_value": 6.257564, "relative_strength": 4.427977, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.662718, "energy": 13.788407, "activity_lines": [ 13.821333, 13.858909, 13.718905, 14.184602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }