{ "ticker": { "uuid": "66177168-6b5a-4433-8928-c0cc26efee8e", "symbol": "IIIN", "name": "Insteel Industries Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 56.678, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 29.301, "architecture_energy": 48.656, "architecture_maturity": 10.803, "architecture_confidence": 62.261, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.75, "rotation_up": 62.21, "upward_expansion": 49.44, "deceleration": 22.28, "rotation_down": 14.95, "downward_expansion": 24.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.557333, 30.872555, 29.674006, 30.143664 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 32.29, "trend_reference": 31.196763, "distance_from_trend": 0.035043, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.819987, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.047697, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.010982, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.116245, "excess_performance": -0.241869, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035043, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012922, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.047697, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.167802, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11011, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.180739, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.116245, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.354717, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1075658, "relative_activity": 0.749765, "balance": 3.354717, "dry_up": 1.05589, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064933, "annualized_volatility": 0.568713, "from_high_reference": -0.162013, "from_low_reference": 0.327455 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.196763, "fair_value_reference": 30.819987, "structural_low": 24.324741, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.014826, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.00574, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.453112, "worst_return": -0.173704, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.10606, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.02332, "regime_survival": 0.181818, "best_return": 0.30264, "worst_return": -0.235732, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.224673, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.040584, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.411992, "worst_return": -0.303083, 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069975, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.050188, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034673, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.117631, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066104, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.41779, "energy": 16.256072, "activity_lines": [ 29.646, 28.963899, 28.879307, 30.043347 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.0, "volume": 1660185, "typical_volume": 1360953.4, "trend": 31.270271, "fair_value": 30.730929, "relative_strength": -12.529562, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.610369, "energy": 17.948685, "activity_lines": [ 30.132667, 29.459721, 28.989328, 30.024519 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.68, "volume": 1598365, "typical_volume": 1419190.95, "trend": 31.279755, "fair_value": 30.763388, "relative_strength": -6.802993, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 18.708172, "energy": 36.842432, "activity_lines": [ 31.038667, 30.187216, 29.2889, 30.115469 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.65, "volume": 1725162, "typical_volume": 1472092.15, "trend": 31.223235, "fair_value": 30.78621, "relative_strength": -13.033541, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.423298, "energy": 29.669288, "activity_lines": [ 31.028667, 30.418045, 29.401341, 30.07484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.29, "volume": 1075658, "typical_volume": 1434659.95, "trend": 31.196763, "fair_value": 30.819987, "relative_strength": -11.010982, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.301425, "energy": 48.655963, "activity_lines": [ 31.557333, 30.872555, 29.674006, 30.143664 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }