{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6618f28c-a65c-402a-bbb7-813aed51d699", "symbol": "CLGN", "name": "Collplant Biotechnologies Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.422, "architecture_energy": 49.657, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.728, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.58, "rotation_up": 27.72, "upward_expansion": 7.15, "deceleration": 60.13, "rotation_down": 48.09, "downward_expansion": 78.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.31784, 0.327398, 0.354727, 0.416251 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.3388, "trend_reference": 0.584494, "distance_from_trend": -0.420353, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.376693, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.899665, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -77.461648, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.576447, "excess_performance": -0.763901, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.420353, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.458436, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.899665, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001758, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.774616, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027287, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.576447, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.448941, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 316359, "relative_activity": 0.860682, "balance": 0.448941, "dry_up": 0.425425, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.221629, "annualized_volatility": 0.773338, "from_high_reference": -0.895186, "from_low_reference": 0.25528 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.584494, "fair_value_reference": 3.376693, "structural_low": 0.2699, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.072553, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.613636, "median_excess_return": -0.043748, "regime_survival": 0.886364, "best_return": 0.655105, "worst_return": -0.520067, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.066369, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.087572, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.734229, "worst_return": -0.762, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.180971, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.229293, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.069441, "worst_return": -0.776667, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.877951, "energy": 57.491427, "activity_lines": [ 0.34748, 0.360395, 0.395578, 0.511002 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.335, "volume": 87213, "typical_volume": 360687.5, "trend": 0.702947, "fair_value": 3.494482, "relative_strength": -79.124076, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.120329, "energy": 55.946835, "activity_lines": [ 0.344673, 0.352967, 0.38535, 0.484715 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.3148, "volume": 82983, "typical_volume": 354607.55, "trend": 0.662441, "fair_value": 3.457484, "relative_strength": -79.442182, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.985817, "energy": 54.792616, "activity_lines": [ 0.335407, 0.343089, 0.374294, 0.459673 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.2728, "volume": 138936, "typical_volume": 355730.15, "trend": 0.622201, "fair_value": 3.418207, "relative_strength": -81.691728, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.095405, "energy": 58.830497, "activity_lines": [ 0.313627, 0.327847, 0.360625, 0.434535 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.3388, "volume": 316359, "typical_volume": 367568.0, "trend": 0.584494, "fair_value": 3.376693, "relative_strength": -77.461648, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.421833, "energy": 49.657169, "activity_lines": [ 0.31784, 0.327398, 0.354727, 0.416251 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }