{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6618f662-7bd1-4654-8918-d951a7a489b6", "symbol": "ESSARSHPNG", "name": "Essar Shipping Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.487, "architecture_energy": 85.947, "architecture_maturity": 32.77, "architecture_confidence": 84.844, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.69, "rotation_up": 8.79, "upward_expansion": 20.54, "deceleration": 37.02, "rotation_down": 83.0, "downward_expansion": 98.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.212667, 21.317091, 22.678524, 23.425979 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 19.860001, "trend_reference": 24.357, "distance_from_trend": -0.184629, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.544359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.32779, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.41219, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.251413, "excess_performance": -0.207704, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.184629, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089458, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.32779, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.221207, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.234122, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178155, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.251413, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.156959, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 994046, "relative_activity": 0.785518, "balance": 0.156959, "dry_up": 1.226695, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083198, "annualized_volatility": 0.442499, "from_high_reference": -0.540915, "from_low_reference": 0.067168 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.357, "fair_value_reference": 29.544359, "structural_low": 18.610001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.024049, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.036134, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.426328, "worst_return": -0.281203, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.017394, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.055307, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.262821, "worst_return": -0.323498, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.175553, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.147239, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.292517, "worst_return": -0.216187, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00426, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014637, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012453, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007687, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106738, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.174671, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.116753, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125053, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.135857, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.161672, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.75, "volume": 1244262, "typical_volume": 2517413.3, "trend": 9.91, "fair_value": 9.317628, "relative_strength": 25.522832, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", 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"activity_lines": [ 22.283333, 22.896909, 23.833334, 24.354387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.17, "volume": 717269, "typical_volume": 1281052.65, "trend": 24.782667, "fair_value": 29.435769, "relative_strength": -20.31202, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.835046, "energy": 75.161488, "activity_lines": [ 21.4, 22.336727, 23.443762, 24.040645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.93, "volume": 707640, "typical_volume": 1269953.1, "trend": 24.534667, "fair_value": 29.492692, "relative_strength": -22.886458, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.533703, "energy": 83.5924, "activity_lines": [ 20.708, 21.798727, 23.055191, 23.72757 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.860001, "volume": 994046, "typical_volume": 1265466.1, "trend": 24.357, "fair_value": 29.544359, "relative_strength": -23.41219, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.48656, "energy": 85.94716, "activity_lines": [ 20.212667, 21.317091, 22.678524, 23.425979 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }