{ "ticker": { "uuid": "661992b1-9d26-42f2-b53a-01903d01aa56", "symbol": "EPRA", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi FTSE EPRA NAREIT Global UCITS ETF DR", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 59.956, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.596, "architecture_energy": 56.91, "architecture_maturity": 34.921, "architecture_confidence": 62.482, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.98, "rotation_up": 62.95, "upward_expansion": 79.8, "deceleration": 60.94, "rotation_down": 16.33, "downward_expansion": 8.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 73.34, 72.881636, 71.687714, 70.741268 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 72.489998, "trend_reference": 69.496999, "distance_from_trend": 0.043067, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 63.602372, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.139737, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.32797, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.091717, "excess_performance": -0.079175, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043067, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041403, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.139737, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016997, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.07328, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023473, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.091717, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.487052, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7147, "relative_activity": 0.929008, "balance": 0.487052, "dry_up": 1.229405, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02221, "annualized_volatility": 0.140182, "from_high_reference": -0.041264, "from_low_reference": 0.17545 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 69.496999, "fair_value_reference": 63.602372, "structural_low": 64.610001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.002674, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.012096, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.070173, "worst_return": -0.066208, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0066, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.008638, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.086133, "worst_return": -0.043863, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.017916, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.002019, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.089946, "worst_return": -0.086467, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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69.260333, "fair_value": 63.504872, "relative_strength": -3.89289, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.852555, "energy": 70.953515, "activity_lines": [ 73.608001, 72.792182, 71.467857, 70.532903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 72.489998, "volume": 7147, "typical_volume": 7693.15, "trend": 69.496999, "fair_value": 63.602372, "relative_strength": -7.32797, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.596468, "energy": 56.909843, "activity_lines": [ 73.34, 72.881636, 71.687714, 70.741268 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }