{ "ticker": { "uuid": "661d0398-68ea-4861-8629-bdec506133ff", "symbol": "TJXC", "name": "The TJX Companies, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.571, "architecture_energy": 20.95, "architecture_maturity": 14.776, "architecture_confidence": 49.91, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.81, "rotation_up": 40.53, "upward_expansion": 64.1, "deceleration": 59.89, "rotation_down": 20.58, "downward_expansion": 9.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 137.566667, 137.627273, 136.795298, 136.136184 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 140.0, "trend_reference": 134.884544, "distance_from_trend": 0.037925, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 108.831872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.286388, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.144546, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.071029, "excess_performance": -0.103218, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037925, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021819, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.286388, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0247, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121445, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023374, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.071029, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 13.615385, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 126, "relative_activity": 12.0, "balance": 13.615385, "dry_up": 4.52381, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040664, "annualized_volatility": 0.174542, "from_high_reference": -0.044369, "from_low_reference": 0.258621 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 134.884544, "fair_value_reference": 108.831872, "structural_low": 125.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.030716, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.016782, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.091212, "worst_return": -0.036106, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.051857, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.031041, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.18873, "worst_return": -0.023729, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.14766, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.041307, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.274293, "worst_return": 0.114303, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.221898, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.173527, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.277899, "worst_return": 0.038802, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018474, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038441, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018712, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014742, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025717, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027896, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.115842, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022673, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.052934, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029515, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024836, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111037, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083045, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025641, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 78.810928, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 70.545371, "fair_value": 58.118278, "relative_strength": 15.17675, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"close": 136.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1.0, "trend": 134.295882, "fair_value": 107.631102, "relative_strength": -11.001992, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.688918, "energy": 20.157209, "activity_lines": [ 136.033333, 137.363636, 136.2363, 135.488451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 136.0, "volume": 13, "typical_volume": 1.65, "trend": 134.448203, "fair_value": 108.017268, "relative_strength": -12.426607, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.9057, "energy": 19.470523, "activity_lines": [ 135.566667, 137.236364, 136.24936, 135.598395 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 137.5, "volume": 51, "typical_volume": 4.2, "trend": 134.716061, "fair_value": 108.420043, "relative_strength": -11.292186, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.653127, "energy": 17.263797, "activity_lines": [ 136.166667, 137.227273, 136.407119, 135.795285 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 140.0, "volume": 126, "typical_volume": 10.5, "trend": 134.884544, "fair_value": 108.831872, "relative_strength": -12.144546, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.571146, "energy": 20.950167, "activity_lines": [ 137.566667, 137.627273, 136.795298, 136.136184 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }