{ "ticker": { "uuid": "662650f7-258a-458b-a56d-c5c29dcf26cd", "symbol": "MANU", "name": "Manchester United Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.411, "architecture_energy": 33.699, "architecture_maturity": 71.702, "architecture_confidence": 85.353, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.99, "rotation_up": 39.13, "upward_expansion": 66.33, "deceleration": 84.26, "rotation_down": 26.25, "downward_expansion": 16.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.313333, 22.460182, 21.614381, 20.581484 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.63, "trend_reference": 19.366667, "distance_from_trend": 0.116867, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.325192, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.248471, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.238958, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.247405, "excess_performance": 0.12178, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.116867, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130878, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.248471, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.110215, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.07239, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026678, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.247405, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.261223, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1115056, "relative_activity": 0.721306, "balance": 3.261223, "dry_up": 0.683105, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081318, "annualized_volatility": 0.280428, "from_high_reference": -0.106936, "from_low_reference": 0.483031 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.366667, "fair_value_reference": 17.325192, "structural_low": 15.86, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.000615, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.007348, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.114779, "worst_return": -0.184685, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.061153, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.079618, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.268786, "worst_return": -0.283125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.13283, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.216618, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.048104, "worst_return": -0.259967, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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}, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.67, "volume": 1241285, "typical_volume": 1619009.1, "trend": 18.959667, "fair_value": 17.317115, "relative_strength": 17.82832, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.359501, "energy": 44.845455, "activity_lines": [ 22.502, 22.453455, 21.177667, 20.163441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.01, "volume": 1009778, "typical_volume": 1570951.7, "trend": 19.200667, "fair_value": 17.333333, "relative_strength": 18.104258, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.443396, "energy": 44.05072, "activity_lines": [ 22.640667, 22.609636, 21.478333, 20.424753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.63, "volume": 1115056, "typical_volume": 1545885.45, "trend": 19.366667, "fair_value": 17.325192, "relative_strength": 7.238958, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.410585, "energy": 33.699493, "activity_lines": [ 22.313333, 22.460182, 21.614381, 20.581484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }