{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6628ff09-70d0-4282-91ee-bd61bf077113", "symbol": "ITRKN", "name": "Intertek Group plc", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.571, "architecture_energy": 60.867, "architecture_maturity": 70.592, "architecture_confidence": 71.405, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.87, "rotation_up": 40.41, "upward_expansion": 71.5, "deceleration": 79.95, "rotation_down": 29.91, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 1240.810059, 1240.810059, 1179.684499, 1135.373312 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1240.810059, "trend_reference": 1107.967196, "distance_from_trend": 0.119898, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1096.572546, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.131535, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.36104, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.07017, "excess_performance": 0.124837, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.119898, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025091, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.131535, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.324266, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.06361, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.357091, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.07017, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 29.948276, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 29.948276, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027078, "annualized_volatility": 0.665541, "from_high_reference": -0.028386, "from_low_reference": 0.417338 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1107.967196, "fair_value_reference": 1096.572546, "structural_low": 875.45105, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.02532, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.000956, "worst_return": -0.244944, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.000502, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.009093, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.148546, "worst_return": -0.244944, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.001192, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.137354, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.08181, "worst_return": -0.278847, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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1240.810059, 1222.799912, 1115.396955, 1099.341634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1240.810059, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 226.6, "trend": 1099.831332, "fair_value": 1093.290028, "relative_strength": 5.84932, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.711225, "energy": 65.657944, "activity_lines": [ 1240.810059, 1235.446185, 1132.049974, 1108.612001 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1240.810059, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 226.6, "trend": 1102.543286, "fair_value": 1094.384201, "relative_strength": 6.573685, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.997098, "energy": 61.120547, "activity_lines": [ 1240.810059, 1241.449568, 1148.315571, 1117.707402 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1240.810059, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 226.6, "trend": 1105.255241, "fair_value": 1095.478373, "relative_strength": 6.052194, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.329079, "energy": 62.664109, "activity_lines": [ 1240.810059, 1240.810059, 1164.193746, 1126.627839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1240.810059, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 179.5, "trend": 1107.967196, "fair_value": 1096.572546, "relative_strength": 6.36104, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.570818, "energy": 60.867459, "activity_lines": [ 1240.810059, 1240.810059, 1179.684499, 1135.373312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }