{ "ticker": { "uuid": "66295498-33e4-4d59-9dae-b464d030fbdd", "symbol": "AVNW", "name": "Aviat Networks Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 54.805, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -5.826, "architecture_energy": 6.777, "architecture_maturity": 13.117, "architecture_confidence": 47.002, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.47, "rotation_up": 29.99, "upward_expansion": 25.31, "deceleration": 35.91, "rotation_down": 20.79, "downward_expansion": 49.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.766, 20.682636, 20.104786, 20.703753 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.12, "trend_reference": 21.533667, "distance_from_trend": -0.01921, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.616603, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.142042, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.31131, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.198786, "excess_performance": -0.38624, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01921, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018796, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.142042, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.240342, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.163113, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.257342, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.198786, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.468608, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 632263, "relative_activity": 0.692985, "balance": 8.468608, "dry_up": 0.704018, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09459, "annualized_volatility": 0.633485, "from_high_reference": -0.218354, "from_low_reference": 0.517241 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.533667, "fair_value_reference": 24.616603, "structural_low": 13.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.027593, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": 0.037341, "regime_survival": 0.391304, "best_return": 0.264833, "worst_return": -0.281037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.030541, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.041053, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.338478, "worst_return": -0.234292, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.016836, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.070439, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.095013, "worst_return": -0.171011, 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054397, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.096286, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040825, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010932, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045041, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", 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"down", "direction": -24.893279, "energy": 21.647103, "activity_lines": [ 20.308667, 19.309636, 20.109643, 20.942204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 21.65, "volume": 531934, "typical_volume": 887741.15, "trend": 21.6235, "fair_value": 24.867917, "relative_strength": -16.384293, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.546038, "energy": 18.433478, "activity_lines": [ 20.919333, 19.802727, 20.147524, 20.944731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.785, "volume": 455992, "typical_volume": 880270.75, "trend": 21.620667, "fair_value": 24.800641, "relative_strength": -15.678195, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.499288, "energy": 15.634259, "activity_lines": [ 21.001, 20.165273, 20.117548, 20.890634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.25, "volume": 598945, "typical_volume": 883712.9, "trend": 21.581667, "fair_value": 24.735705, "relative_strength": -15.991799, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.073213, "energy": 13.205562, "activity_lines": [ 20.81, 20.340091, 20.056881, 20.802204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.48, "volume": 882118, "typical_volume": 908529.35, "trend": 21.544333, "fair_value": 24.673718, "relative_strength": -15.129832, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.154938, "energy": 10.390766, "activity_lines": [ 20.681667, 20.479455, 20.0405, 20.731129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.12, "volume": 632263, "typical_volume": 912376.6, "trend": 21.533667, "fair_value": 24.616603, "relative_strength": -16.31131, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.826071, "energy": 6.777177, "activity_lines": [ 20.766, 20.682636, 20.104786, 20.703753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }