{ "ticker": { "uuid": "662d2675-4a0f-4c4e-9b4d-d231c00fd786", "symbol": "SMTC", "name": "Semtech Corporation", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -4.896, "architecture_energy": 36.296, "architecture_maturity": 68.225, "architecture_confidence": 69.182, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.14, "rotation_up": 16.67, "upward_expansion": 52.89, "deceleration": 85.16, "rotation_down": 50.09, "downward_expansion": 33.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 2152.0, 2353.668, 2376.075945, 2185.227526 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2100.0, "trend_reference": 1926.057011, "distance_from_trend": 0.09031, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1178.372699, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.782119, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 26.797533, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.557806, "excess_performance": 0.612472, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.09031, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.254094, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.782119, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.187047, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.267975, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.348272, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.557806, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 12.123786, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 12.123786, "dry_up": 0.002685, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076979, "annualized_volatility": 0.570746, "from_high_reference": -0.285408, "from_low_reference": 1.884615 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1926.057011, "fair_value_reference": 1178.372699, "structural_low": 1348.050049, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.408756, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.430552, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.408756, "worst_return": -0.408756, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.435115, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.52499, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.435115, "worst_return": -0.435115, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.444275, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.555397, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.444275, "worst_return": -0.444275, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.425832, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.100725, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.425832, "worst_return": 0.425832, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-05-20", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.428448, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044582, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.016216, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.188054, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.325193, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018967, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 2230.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 651.5, "trend": 1875.927014, "fair_value": 1166.321417, "relative_strength": 39.83998, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.636329, "energy": 45.521844, "activity_lines": [ 2356.6, 2533.91309, 2387.250087, 2157.931979 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2100.0, "volume": 7, "typical_volume": 651.85, "trend": 1900.992013, "fair_value": 1172.347058, "relative_strength": 28.684598, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.719607, "energy": 40.049532, "activity_lines": [ 2228.866667, 2439.699636, 2383.453373, 2172.388301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2100.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 651.85, "trend": 1926.057011, "fair_value": 1178.372699, "relative_strength": 26.797533, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.895723, "energy": 36.295684, "activity_lines": [ 2152.0, 2353.668, 2376.075945, 2185.227526 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }