{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6632d9ef-181a-414e-86fe-9cbf63322c44", "symbol": "SIL", "name": "GLOBAL X FDS GLOBAL X SILVER MINERS ETF (POST REV SPL", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.922, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.443, "architecture_energy": 28.766, "architecture_maturity": 30.459, "architecture_confidence": 72.953, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.53, "rotation_up": 24.34, "upward_expansion": 12.45, "deceleration": 60.46, "rotation_down": 47.64, "downward_expansion": 73.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 78.91, 78.544272, 82.451105, 85.821313 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 88.5, "trend_reference": 90.680995, "distance_from_trend": -0.024051, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.172021, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.799804, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.742918, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.091282, "excess_performance": -0.216907, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024051, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004872, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.799804, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.38202, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037429, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.227125, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.091282, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.854672, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7759173, "relative_activity": 1.019633, "balance": 0.854672, "dry_up": 0.693618, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10901, "annualized_volatility": 0.619622, "from_high_reference": -0.257799, "from_low_reference": 0.722316 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 90.680995, "fair_value_reference": 49.172021, "structural_low": 69.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.0285, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": -0.006829, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.131747, "worst_return": -0.197475, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.050123, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.008974, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.154828, "worst_return": -0.202641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.053299, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.009411, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.138349, "worst_return": -0.326547, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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90.428785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 76.35, "volume": 4423227, "typical_volume": 9682954.35, "trend": 91.889453, "fair_value": 47.846091, "relative_strength": -13.62576, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.415675, "energy": 61.144174, "activity_lines": [ 79.085008, 81.831508, 86.262722, 89.41492 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 71.74, "volume": 4343488, "typical_volume": 8984521.2, "trend": 91.486133, "fair_value": 48.137057, "relative_strength": -17.833697, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.599422, "energy": 68.149073, "activity_lines": [ 76.328989, 79.431992, 84.523627, 88.114956 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 75.44, "volume": 4960254, "typical_volume": 8443112.6, "trend": 91.031995, "fair_value": 48.45494, "relative_strength": -13.419251, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.967541, "energy": 59.174416, "activity_lines": [ 75.461383, 78.166376, 83.357342, 87.079721 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 73.75, "volume": 4050164, "typical_volume": 8067209.85, "trend": 90.723329, "fair_value": 48.766666, "relative_strength": -16.578097, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.389077, "energy": 58.159696, "activity_lines": [ 74.575333, 76.884985, 82.152914, 85.964754 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 88.5, "volume": 7759173, "typical_volume": 7609768.5, "trend": 90.680995, "fair_value": 49.172021, "relative_strength": -3.742918, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.442889, "energy": 28.766461, "activity_lines": [ 78.91, 78.544272, 82.451105, 85.821313 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }