{ "ticker": { "uuid": "663bc40a-4edd-4766-8bb2-ebb00caf684b", "symbol": "IHC", "name": "Inspiration Healthcare Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.054, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -39.264, "architecture_energy": 76.227, "architecture_maturity": 21.889, "architecture_confidence": 68.887, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.65, "rotation_up": 16.72, "upward_expansion": 27.72, "deceleration": 43.1, "rotation_down": 71.8, "downward_expansion": 67.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.184333, 0.194273, 0.223795, 0.228989 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.185, "trend_reference": 0.223867, "distance_from_trend": -0.173615, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.242303, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.236493, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.568878, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.088235, "excess_performance": 0.037, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.173615, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0525, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.236493, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.420146, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.195689, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.597725, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.088235, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.338729, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 103623, "relative_activity": 0.355304, "balance": 0.338729, "dry_up": 0.690483, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099792, "annualized_volatility": 0.654273, "from_high_reference": -0.421875, "from_low_reference": 0.504065 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.223867, "fair_value_reference": 0.242303, "structural_low": 0.16755, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.023904, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.005466, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.023904, "worst_return": 0.023904, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.050156, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.105078, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.050156, "worst_return": -0.050156, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.149931, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.230826, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.149931, "worst_return": -0.149931, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.398831, 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"2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.176119, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049383, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.370588, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.171103, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.327354, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153355, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057143, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.487457, "volume": 69699, "typical_volume": 492633.1, "trend": 0.498903, "fair_value": 0.888341, "relative_strength": -15.97458, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.044995, 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"activity_lines": [ 0.193, 0.218309, 0.240243, 0.235904 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.185, "volume": 307607, "typical_volume": 336986.65, "trend": 0.2207, "fair_value": 0.246149, "relative_strength": -19.275486, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.255056, "energy": 76.24682, "activity_lines": [ 0.187667, 0.208345, 0.234405, 0.233676 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.185, "volume": 195138, "typical_volume": 300288.3, "trend": 0.22195, "fair_value": 0.244242, "relative_strength": -19.771946, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.82412, "energy": 77.68273, "activity_lines": [ 0.185, 0.200327, 0.228938, 0.231373 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.185, "volume": 103623, "typical_volume": 291645.7, "trend": 0.223867, "fair_value": 0.242303, "relative_strength": -19.568878, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.263778, "energy": 76.227055, "activity_lines": [ 0.184333, 0.194273, 0.223795, 0.228989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }