{ "ticker": { "uuid": "663eae8a-9c13-46ba-b1ca-f49687ec044a", "symbol": "002404", "name": "Zhejiang Jiaxin Silk Corp.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.304, "architecture_energy": 42.155, "architecture_maturity": 28.033, "architecture_confidence": 95.375, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.78, "rotation_up": 19.59, "upward_expansion": 5.47, "deceleration": 54.23, "rotation_down": 55.19, "downward_expansion": 78.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.752, 5.824364, 6.129811, 6.296904 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.88, "trend_reference": 6.496184, "distance_from_trend": -0.094853, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.756085, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.021528, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.925748, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.149111, "excess_performance": -0.15651, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.094853, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033091, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.021528, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.228427, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119257, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019796, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.149111, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.291801, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37871900, "relative_activity": 0.93696, "balance": 0.291801, "dry_up": 1.116608, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092491, "annualized_volatility": 0.380729, "from_high_reference": -0.268783, "from_low_reference": 0.092937 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.496184, "fair_value_reference": 5.756085, "structural_low": 5.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.01966, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": 0.022563, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.161597, "worst_return": -0.205298, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.001678, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.008552, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.249049, "worst_return": -0.065681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.056029, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.032038, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.134706, "worst_return": -0.050336, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 6.55603, "fair_value": 5.756587, "relative_strength": -15.273681, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.224798, "energy": 69.863212, "activity_lines": [ 5.672, 5.902, 6.232233, 6.386593 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.81, "volume": 37917000, "typical_volume": 40352420.6, "trend": 6.524141, "fair_value": 5.756139, "relative_strength": -8.855203, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.983471, "energy": 56.698212, "activity_lines": [ 5.701333, 5.850545, 6.175502, 6.338462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.88, "volume": 37871900, "typical_volume": 40419957.85, "trend": 6.496184, "fair_value": 5.756085, "relative_strength": -11.925748, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.304288, "energy": 42.155347, "activity_lines": [ 5.752, 5.824364, 6.129811, 6.296904 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }