{ "ticker": { "uuid": "66409ff3-58c6-43ff-a570-05547fc7c87e", "symbol": "T3T1", "name": "Seven Principles AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 77.063, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.657, "architecture_energy": 45.093, "architecture_maturity": 18.462, "architecture_confidence": 93.0, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.49, "rotation_up": 17.19, "upward_expansion": 6.54, "deceleration": 46.9, "rotation_down": 55.53, "downward_expansion": 77.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.812, 4.833455, 4.88681, 4.941161 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.84, "trend_reference": 4.993667, "distance_from_trend": -0.030772, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.423782, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.107634, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.987696, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.060194, "excess_performance": -0.124834, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030772, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009979, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.107634, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002244, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.109877, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099907, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.060194, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.194465, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1007, "relative_activity": 2.61287, "balance": 0.194465, "dry_up": 1.354437, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028131, "annualized_volatility": 0.098861, "from_high_reference": -0.103704, "from_low_reference": 0.029787 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.993667, "fair_value_reference": 5.423782, "structural_low": 4.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.012159, "positive_rate": 0.323529, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.009295, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 0.113208, "worst_return": -0.169118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.002713, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013675, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.242938, "worst_return": -0.318471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.018868, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.078556, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.163842, "worst_return": -0.398876, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.032975, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.234689, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.157303, "worst_return": -0.470297, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061404, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008403, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.037736, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009709, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009709, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009804, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009709, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019608, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.392011, "energy": 15.162102, "activity_lines": [ 5.103333, 5.106364, 5.099048, 5.073011 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "close": 5.05, "volume": 102, "typical_volume": 400.8, "trend": 5.055333, "fair_value": 5.704872, "relative_strength": -0.345528, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.14777, "energy": 8.732228, "activity_lines": [ 5.083333, 5.095455, 5.098095, 5.072559 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 4.96, "volume": 1088, "typical_volume": 390.7, "trend": 5.050667, "fair_value": 5.679615, "relative_strength": -5.668518, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.480844, "energy": 27.718809, "activity_lines": [ 5.04, 5.07, 5.087857, 5.066409 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 4.9, "volume": 1590, "typical_volume": 470.0, "trend": 5.044, "fair_value": 5.653974, "relative_strength": -7.44831, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.991335, "energy": 47.582758, "activity_lines": [ 4.986, 5.036182, 5.071429, 5.056688 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 4.82, "volume": 1040, "typical_volume": 520.75, "trend": 5.034667, "fair_value": 5.627821, "relative_strength": -7.543213, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.148765, "energy": 69.610161, "activity_lines": [ 4.918667, 4.991455, 5.047286, 5.042237 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 4.7, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 520.75, "trend": 5.023, "fair_value": 5.600897, "relative_strength": -9.14039, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.452662, "energy": 93.349065, "activity_lines": [ 4.83, 4.93, 5.011905, 5.020645 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 4.88, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 383.2, "trend": 5.015667, "fair_value": 5.577692, "relative_strength": -6.75027, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.36526, "energy": 80.426303, "activity_lines": [ 4.828, 4.908545, 4.994143, 5.011419 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 4.9, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 288.0, "trend": 5.009, "fair_value": 5.556218, "relative_strength": -5.037465, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.771726, "energy": 73.646797, "activity_lines": [ 4.844, 4.895636, 4.97981, 5.003957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 4.94, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 288.0, "trend": 5.007, "fair_value": 5.535, "relative_strength": -8.185174, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.634054, "energy": 45.129175, "activity_lines": [ 4.877333, 4.893636, 4.970476, 4.999505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.92, "volume": 566, "typical_volume": 316.3, "trend": 5.004333, "fair_value": 5.513333, "relative_strength": -5.837379, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.374031, "energy": 25.615225, "activity_lines": [ 4.901333, 4.890909, 4.960476, 4.993892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.76, "volume": 1034, "typical_volume": 367.95, "trend": 5.001, "fair_value": 5.490641, "relative_strength": -7.878045, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.304714, "energy": 35.1912, "activity_lines": [ 4.865333, 4.862364, 4.936095, 4.978129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.78, "volume": 46, "typical_volume": 335.0, "trend": 4.997, "fair_value": 5.467756, "relative_strength": -8.308125, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.66219, "energy": 39.660104, "activity_lines": [ 4.832, 4.843636, 4.915476, 4.963871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.8, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 335.05, "trend": 4.995, "fair_value": 5.445321, "relative_strength": -9.574721, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.348068, "energy": 41.529636, "activity_lines": [ 4.812, 4.833455, 4.898524, 4.951161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.84, "volume": 1007, "typical_volume": 385.4, "trend": 4.993667, "fair_value": 5.423782, "relative_strength": -10.987696, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.656792, "energy": 45.093311, "activity_lines": [ 4.812, 4.833455, 4.88681, 4.941161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }