{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6640bc3b-fd38-4765-8bce-5fd7411d3652", "symbol": "600649", "name": "Shanghai Chengtou Holding Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.281, "architecture_energy": 39.824, "architecture_maturity": 96.829, "architecture_confidence": 84.953, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.8, "rotation_up": 27.51, "upward_expansion": 19.03, "deceleration": 46.96, "rotation_down": 33.83, "downward_expansion": 64.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.624, 3.593515, 3.732145, 3.950468 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.63, "trend_reference": 4.259857, "distance_from_trend": -0.147859, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.162975, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.128028, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.118274, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.315094, "excess_performance": -0.271891, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.147859, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063836, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.128028, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170442, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.171183, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042865, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.315094, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.726294, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 79759557, "relative_activity": 0.857144, "balance": 0.726294, "dry_up": 0.963377, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062848, "annualized_volatility": 0.280353, "from_high_reference": -0.371972, "from_low_reference": 0.067647 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.259857, "fair_value_reference": 4.162975, "structural_low": 3.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.002502, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": 0.006651, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.381538, "worst_return": -0.131991, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.003443, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008983, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.606153, "worst_return": -0.128806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.007514, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000792, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.363077, "worst_return": -0.080869, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.52, "volume": 88915162, "typical_volume": 110066601.05, "trend": 4.307857, "fair_value": 4.164326, "relative_strength": -17.841312, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.868308, "energy": 61.602085, "activity_lines": [ 3.548652, 3.575723, 3.789628, 4.030793 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.72, "volume": 90401678, "typical_volume": 103324777.45, "trend": 4.28719, "fair_value": 4.164275, "relative_strength": -13.134873, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.974497, "energy": 46.7276, "activity_lines": [ 3.610637, 3.591801, 3.76241, 3.992867 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.63, "volume": 79759557, "typical_volume": 93052715.2, "trend": 4.259857, "fair_value": 4.162975, "relative_strength": -17.118274, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.280855, "energy": 39.824095, "activity_lines": [ 3.624, 3.593515, 3.732145, 3.950468 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }