{ "ticker": { "uuid": "66417a09-54a1-4bfe-98e6-6b1e6222033b", "symbol": "CSCO", "name": "Cisco Systems Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.787, "architecture_energy": 41.08, "architecture_maturity": 72.446, "architecture_confidence": 87.748, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.81, "rotation_up": 41.45, "upward_expansion": 72.62, "deceleration": 91.25, "rotation_down": 28.65, "downward_expansion": 10.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 117.254, 116.683786, 113.650958, 106.489173 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 121.43, "trend_reference": 97.1262, "distance_from_trend": 0.250229, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 63.735408, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.90522, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 24.977677, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.439229, "excess_performance": 0.251775, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.250229, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.165781, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.90522, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.236276, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.249777, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.147995, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.439229, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.65904, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 92360654, "relative_activity": 0.834365, "balance": 1.65904, "dry_up": 0.906454, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078947, "annualized_volatility": 0.385118, "from_high_reference": -0.06511, "from_low_reference": 0.877939 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 97.1262, "fair_value_reference": 63.735408, "structural_low": 73.031828, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.027358, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.011736, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.174532, "worst_return": -0.085644, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.126307, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.014697, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.199666, "worst_return": -0.244239, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.058634, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.062846, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.202558, "worst_return": -0.077149, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"activity_lines": [ 115.171639, 116.83298, 109.49935, 102.042489 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 114.17, "volume": 80886505, "typical_volume": 113978825.15, "trend": 94.183113, "fair_value": 62.845923, "relative_strength": 25.854796, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.657014, "energy": 35.379824, "activity_lines": [ 114.696325, 116.157188, 110.769514, 103.411192 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 115.99, "volume": 111099404, "typical_volume": 113960331.1, "trend": 95.52818, "fair_value": 63.276676, "relative_strength": 26.264929, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.124598, "energy": 35.808241, "activity_lines": [ 115.156419, 115.88576, 112.041841, 104.818088 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 121.43, "volume": 92360654, "typical_volume": 110695689.75, "trend": 97.1262, "fair_value": 63.735408, "relative_strength": 24.977677, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.786937, "energy": 41.080066, "activity_lines": [ 117.254, 116.683786, 113.650958, 106.489173 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }