{ "ticker": { "uuid": "66445326-6d3d-466e-9ceb-56deca7397ca", "symbol": "603926", "name": "Tieliu Co,.Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.389, "architecture_energy": 72.89, "architecture_maturity": 22.793, "architecture_confidence": 83.951, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.42, "rotation_up": 9.76, "upward_expansion": 16.77, "deceleration": 37.6, "rotation_down": 71.95, "downward_expansion": 90.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.477333, 16.491514, 18.327298, 19.046859 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.79, "trend_reference": 19.985022, "distance_from_trend": -0.209908, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.50089, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.26311, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.788631, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.400986, "excess_performance": -0.357783, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.209908, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026863, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.26311, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.667581, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127886, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.390501, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.400986, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.963465, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22211870, "relative_activity": 0.774971, "balance": 0.963465, "dry_up": 1.026946, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.156652, "annualized_volatility": 0.552769, "from_high_reference": -0.440071, "from_low_reference": 0.375436 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.985022, "fair_value_reference": 12.50089, "structural_low": 13.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.015426, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.002451, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.246606, "worst_return": -0.151786, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.007229, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.002817, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.14994, "worst_return": -0.113194, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.054986, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.050968, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.393742, "worst_return": -0.096515, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.127485, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.163361, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040179, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.283137, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.167738, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", 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"relative_strength": -11.132225, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.127126, "energy": 73.90365, "activity_lines": [ 17.091404, 18.440927, 19.522926, 19.966992 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.74, "volume": 33864604, "typical_volume": 27348383.15, "trend": 20.045356, "fair_value": 12.423944, "relative_strength": -15.421848, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.615089, "energy": 75.124297, "activity_lines": [ 16.104828, 17.511094, 19.044923, 19.622539 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.36, "volume": 43217650, "typical_volume": 28481114.3, "trend": 20.027689, "fair_value": 12.460737, "relative_strength": -12.508606, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.967359, "energy": 76.515104, "activity_lines": [ 15.654666, 16.882883, 18.654729, 19.320258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.79, "volume": 22211870, "typical_volume": 28661560.9, "trend": 19.985022, "fair_value": 12.50089, "relative_strength": -12.788631, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.389265, "energy": 72.889709, "activity_lines": [ 15.477333, 16.491514, 18.327298, 19.046859 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }