{ "ticker": { "uuid": "664d6dd7-1c10-4c65-ad6f-10b943e7baa2", "symbol": "CQQQ", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR II CHINA TECHNOLOGY ETF USD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.147, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 0.958, "architecture_energy": 12.97, "architecture_maturity": 29.775, "architecture_confidence": 57.832, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.28, "rotation_up": 23.48, "upward_expansion": 24.76, "deceleration": 63.83, "rotation_down": 51.19, "downward_expansion": 33.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.501333, 52.259636, 52.165048, 51.638774 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 53.08, "trend_reference": 51.759333, "distance_from_trend": 0.025516, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.166971, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.258805, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.624609, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.013383, "excess_performance": -0.139008, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025516, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000591, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.258805, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046297, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.096246, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05344, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.013383, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.94532, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2772321, "relative_activity": 0.471712, "balance": 0.94532, "dry_up": 0.864524, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062047, "annualized_volatility": 0.286615, "from_high_reference": -0.113831, "from_low_reference": 0.198329 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.759333, "fair_value_reference": 42.166971, "structural_low": 44.295, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.028057, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.007508, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.182635, "worst_return": -0.134626, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.016203, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.047434, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.242223, "worst_return": -0.259267, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.05717, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.150568, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.309109, "worst_return": -0.344116, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 6204826.85, "trend": 52.104047, "fair_value": 41.895509, "relative_strength": -3.523411, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.217711, "energy": 52.700468, "activity_lines": [ 54.546, 53.668545, 52.162143, 51.927551 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 50.32, "volume": 5552622, "typical_volume": 6246804.7, "trend": 52.081, "fair_value": 41.970982, "relative_strength": -11.260748, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.654571, "energy": 14.370549, "activity_lines": [ 53.306, 53.136545, 52.105714, 51.812452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.88, "volume": 5214775, "typical_volume": 5975625.9, "trend": 52.002667, "fair_value": 42.01943, "relative_strength": -11.374373, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.55896, "energy": 7.632077, "activity_lines": [ 51.984667, 52.584909, 52.015714, 51.670452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.3, "volume": 6784020, "typical_volume": 6059086.3, "trend": 51.868333, "fair_value": 42.075236, "relative_strength": -11.463923, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.746009, "energy": 14.366063, "activity_lines": [ 51.15, 52.147091, 51.960476, 51.560602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.08, "volume": 2772321, "typical_volume": 5877144.9, "trend": 51.759333, "fair_value": 42.166971, "relative_strength": -9.624609, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.958005, "energy": 12.969797, "activity_lines": [ 51.501333, 52.259636, 52.165048, 51.638774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }